College Football Betting: Four best bets for Week 5

Sep 26, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks running back Alex Collins (3) runs with the ball for a third quarter touchdown against the Texas A&M Aggies at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Arkansas at Tennessee (-6.5)

When: Saturday at 7:00 ET

Arkansas and Tennessee were two SEC programs thought to be on the upswing coming into this season. Arkansas shut out LSU and Ole Miss in November before a resounding victory over Texas in a bowl game to end last season. Tennessee ended the year well, which was capped off by a blowout bowl win over Iowa. I remember tweeting this out while the Volunteers were dominating in their bowl game:

I was half joking when I tweeted that on January 2 but I’m shocked that these teams are a combined 3-5 with wins over Bowling Green, UTEP and Western Carolina.

Both these teams suffered heartbreaking losses in Week 4. Arkansas bounced back well from home loses to Toledo and Texas Tech, and had an eight-point lead over Texas A&M with under three minutes to play. However, it was the same old story for Bret Bielema at Arkansas as the Razorbacks lost by seven in overtime and didn’t even cover the spread because of the extra session.

Tennessee blew their second double-digit fourth quarter lead of the month. This time it was more painful because it was against Florida. This was a huge game for the Volunteers because they haven’t beaten their rival since 2004. The loss in this one falls squarely on Butch Jones who didn’t go for two with his team up 12 points in the fourth quarter. The Volunteers kicked an extra point to go up 13, and they lost by one point after Florida scored two touchdowns.

Despite another tough loss for Arkansas, it was encouraging to see improvement from quarterback Brandon Allen. The Razorbacks had the right game plan by feeding running back Alex Collins and they almost doubled the Aggies in time of possession. Arkansas should continue to run the ball and their offensive line has a big advantage over Tennessee’s front four.

The loss from Tennessee is absolutely demoralizing because the players especially quarterback Josh Dobbs, played a strong game. I think it will be tough for a young Tennessee team to mentally bounce back and there might be some doubt in the in-game decisions by Jones.

I think Arkansas is a little undervalued here based on their terrible non-conference performances. This game is decided by a field goal either way.

Pick: Arkansas (+6.5)

Next: Ole Miss at Florida