College Football Betting: Four best bets for Week 5

Sep 5, 2015; Gainesville, FL, USA; Florida Gators defensive back Vernon Hargreaves III (1) runs with the ball after an interception against the New Mexico State Aggies during the second half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Ole Miss (-7.5) at Florida

When: Saturday at 7:00 ET

Ole Miss has averaged 54.8 points and Florida has averaged 33.5 in four games this season but I like the under here. The points per game averages are misleading because both teams played two non-conference games to open the season. Ole Miss dropped more than 70 in games against UT-Martin and Fresno State. Florida scored 61 against New Mexico State.

I still think the strength of both teams is the defenses. Ole Miss has a ruthless front seven featuring top NFL prospect Robert Nkemdiche. Florida boosts a superstar of their own in Vernon Hargreaves. He might be the only cornerback in the country that can slow down Ole Miss wide receiver Laquon Treadwell.

Ole Miss’ offense came back to earth against Vanderbilt by only scoring 27 points last week. They did score 43 in Chad Kelly’s first road start against Alabama but Crimson Tide turnovers gifted the Rebels offense with short fields, and Ole Miss were on the right side of some luck plays.

Florida’s win over Tennessee looked like an easy under until conservative play calling by the Volunteers gave Florida life and the Gators cashed in with late points. This is a huge test for Florida freshman quarterback Will Grier and I see him struggling against this defense.

Pick: Under 51.5

Next: Oregon at Colorado