College Football Picks: SEC predictions against the spread for Week 5

Sep 26, 2015; Athens, GA, USA; Georgia Bulldogs running back Nick Chubb (27) runs past the Georgia bench on his way to a touchdown against the Southern University Jaguars during the second half at Sanford Stadium. Georgia defeated Southern 48-6. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

It’s Week 5 of the SEC football season, and there are nine games on tap – including three matching Top 25 opponents. We pick every game against the spread.

When making predictions against the spread – whether for fun or profit – timing is extremely important. Point spreads are posted Sunday, and can sometimes change dramatically over the course of the week. For instance, had you wanted to place a wager on this week’s BYU-Connecticut game, you could have gotten the Cougars -3 on Sunday, but by early Thursday morning, BYU had grown to an 18-point favorite.

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Of course, a two-touchdown move is rare. Sometimes, one point is all that’s needed to make a difference. For our weekly SEC predictions against the spread, our bets go in the books late Wednesday, and at the time of publication last week, Texas A&M was an eight-point favorite over Arkansas.

When the game kicked off, the spread closed with the Aggies -7, and had we waited until Saturday to make our selection, the game would have been a push. Luckily, picking Arkansas on Wednesday resulted in a profitable 5-3 week instead of a barely break even 4-3-1 slate.

In addition to the Hogs, we were on the right side with South Carolina (who won by the exact 31-14 score predicted in the preview, as luck would have it), Syracuse, ULM and Vanderbilt, but missed badly with Auburn, Tennessee, and Missouri, who all lost straight up.

• 2015 Straight Up: 27-9 (.711)
• 2015 Against the Spread: 22-13 (.628)
• 2015 Over/Under: 22-13 (.628)
• Last Week Straight Up: 5-3 (.625)
• Last Week Against the Spread: 5-3 (.625)
• Last Week Over/Under: 6-2 (.750)

This week, there are nine games in play, including three huge conference games featuring opponents ranked in the Top 25, but with Kentucky hosting FCS opponent Eastern Kentucky, we’ll make just eight picks against the spread. Who will win and who will cover? Let’s take a look.

Note: Point spreads referenced in the pages that follow come from VegasInsider.com and are accurate as of Thursday October 1, 2015

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