Mountain West Predictions: Picks against the spread for Week 5

By Doug Carey | Oct 2, 2015

Making predictions against the spread for every game in the Mountain West this week.

The Mountain West added another bowl game on Thursday, which seems like a giant leap of faith given the league’s start this season. Seriously, is the Mountain West really going to have seven bowl-eligible teams this year? This might be the worst possible time to introduce a new bowl game for the downtrodden conference, which is off to a truly embarrassing start.

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How bad is it? The conference’s West Division went 2-13 against non-conference opponents, and the games were not close (see: Ole Miss 73, Fresno State 21. Better yet, don’t revisit that one.) Aside from Boise State, are we really going to have six teams worthy of the postseason, even in a watered-down bowl environment where basically everyone gets an invite?

Of course, like any self-respecting FBS conference, the Mountain West has no shame. As a result, we’ll have the Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl in Tucson, Arizona, on Dec. 29. Get your tickets now. Or wait, if you want. We’re fairly certain good seats will be available right up to kickoff.

Who knows? Maybe the conference will turn things around starting this week. Maybe San Jose State can go to Auburn and pull the upset. Maybe Utah State and San Diego State will start living up to expectations. And yes, maybe Fresno State will go a full week without losing a quarterback to injury. If nothing else, it’ll be interesting.

Results
Last week: 3-4 ATS. Overall: 14-17 ATS
Note: Games involving FCS teams had no line and have not been included in ATS picks.

Wyoming at Appalachian State (-25): The Mountaineers have won eight of their last nine games and should roll past the lowly Cowboys, who have dropped seven straight. Wyoming is shaking up its defense this week, but at this point they’re really just patching holes on a sinking ship. Pick: Appalachian State -25

Air Force (+5) at Navy: The Midshipmen have won nine of the last 12 in the series and come into Saturday’s game on a hot streak with seven straight victories. Both teams boast strong running games, and it should be close to the end. Pick: Air Force +5

San Jose State at Auburn (-20): Don’t be fooled by the Spartans’ 49-23 win over Fresno State last week, which said more about the Bulldogs’ ineptitude than anything else. Auburn has been a huge disappointment this year but should be able to snap a two-game skid here. Pick: Auburn -20

Colorado State at Utah State (-4): This is the game of the week in the conference. We’re curious to see if Utah State can get untracked with Kent Myers at quarterback. If so, the Aggies could still make some noise in the West Division. Colorado State has a good chance to snap the Aggies’ 10-game home winning streak, but we don’t see it happening. Pick: Utah State -4

UNLV at Nevada (-6.5): The rivalry game is close to a sellout, but you won’t be able to find it on TV (thanks, Mountain West Conference). UNLV created a little buzz with last week’s 80-8 victory over Idaho State, but we don’t think they’re ready to win in Reno quite yet. Pick: Nevada -6.5

New Mexico State at New Mexico (-12.5): Can’t remember the last time the Lobos were double-digit favorites, but the spread is justified here. New Mexico State owns the nation’s longest losing streak at 13 games, and it’s about to hit 14. The Lobos are rushing for 262.3 yards per game. They might hit that number in the first half against the Aggies. Pick: New Mexico -12.5

Hawaii at Boise State (-24.5): Memo to the rest of the Mountain West: Boise State has its quarterback for the next four years. Freshman Brett Rypien threw for 321 yards and three TDs in last week’s 56-14 win over Virginia as the Broncos looked like a team that won’t lose again this year. Pick: Boise State -24.5

Fresno State at San Diego State (-8.5): Both teams have disappointed early, and we could see both Aztecs coach Rocky Long and the Bulldogs’ Tim DeRuyter on the hot seat before long. Fresno State has won three straight in the series but looked disinterested last week in San Jose. Point spread seems a little high, though. Pick: Fresno State -8.5

Next: 30 Best College Running Backs of All-Time

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