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Mountain West Predictions: Picks against the spread for Week 6

By Doug Carey

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Making predictions against the spread for every game in the Mountain West this week.

There has been a considerable lack of buzz around the Mountain West this season, but at least things are simmering at UNLV. First-year coach Tony Sanchez’s squad is coming off a 23-17 win over rival Nevada and heads into this Saturday’s home game against San Jose State riding a refreshing wave of momentum.

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While Sanchez has already recorded a “signature win” with the Rebels, New Mexico coach Bob Davie is still searching for one. Sorry, Bob, but your four straight wins over lowly New Mexico State don’t count, no matter you think. Still, things are considerably better in Albuquerque than in Fresno, where the Bulldogs are having the kind of season you wouldn’t wish on your worst enemy. From season-ending injuries to off-field arrests, Fresno State is a disaster heading into Saturday’s home game against surging Utah State.

We’re looking to bounce back from another ugly week after going 2-6 and missing badly on several games, including UNLV-Nevada. Our best bet this week is Utah State, which should easily cover the 12 points over Fresno State. The Aggies could be giving 22 points and we’d probably still go with them this week.

Results
Last week: 2-6 ATS. Overall: 16-23 ATS
Note: Games involving FCS teams had no line and have not been included in ATS picks.

New Mexico (+5) at Nevada: The Wolf Pack are coming off a demoralizing loss to the Rebels, while New Mexico enters the game with a surprising 3-2 mark. The Lobos boast a strong running game but don’t have the talent to match up with Nevada. We’re a little concerned about Nevada’s mindset after last week, but we’ll stick with them here. Pick: Nevada -5

Boise State (-16.5) at Colorado State: Don’t look now, but the Broncos are playing as well as ever. Freshman Brett Rypien has thrown for six TDs with no INTs since taking over for Ryan Finley, and RB Jeremy McNichols leads the nation with 12 TDs. Boise State is 4-0 all-time against Colorado State, which turned in another sloppy effort in last week’s 33-18 loss to Utah State. Pick: Boise State -16.5

San José State at UNLV (+2.5): Forget the final score; the Spartans actually had a chance to beat Auburn last week. Running back Tyler Ervin has rushed for 10 TDs, but the Spartans have lost 10 of their last 12 road games, including seven in a row. We’d like UNLV a lot more if starting QB Blake Decker (shoulder) was going to play. We’ll stick with them at home. Pick: UNLV +2.5

San Diego State at Hawai‘i (-3): Star Aztecs RB Donnel Humphrey was supposed to miss the next few weeks with a high ankle sprain, but now there are reports he could return as soon as this week. This figures to be a low-scoring, fairly boring affair. SDSU has won 12 of its last 14 games against Hawaii, which could be without QB Max Wittek (knee). Pick: San Diego State +3

Utah State at Fresno State (+12): The Aggies looked sluggish in their first few games but are primed for a second-half run behind QB Kent Myers, who turned in a dominant effort last week against Colorado State. Fresno State looks like a shell of the team that played “anyone, anytime” under former coach Pat Hill. Pick: Utah State -12

Wyoming at Air Force (-24): We understand Wyoming is one of the worst teams in the country, but this is an awfully high number. Air Force could be without four defensive starters due to injuries, and the Falcons have lost two straight to Wyoming. The Cowboys have lost eight in a row, and this will be number nine. But they’ll keep it close for a while. Pick: Wyoming +24

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