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Mountain West Predictions: Picks against the spread for Week 8

By Doug Carey

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Making predictions against the spread for every game in the Mountain West this week.

There wasn’t a seismic shift in the Mountain West last week, but the tectonic plates definitely moved with Utah State’s 52-26 rout of perennial power Boise State. How big was the win for Utah State? Let’s say it was a strong 6.2 on the Richter scale with numerous aftershocks likely to be felt into December.

The Aggies now lead Boise State, Air Force and New Mexico by one game in the Mountain Division, and they own the all-important head-to-head tiebreaker over the Broncos. It’s too soon to say Utah State has taken over as the lead dog in the conference, but coach Matt Wells’ squad definitely made a statement in Logan.

Utah State heads into Saturday’s game at San Diego State as five-point favorites, and it’ll be interesting to see how the Aggies respond to success. The Aztecs have the personnel to pull the upset at home, but we’re bullish on Utah State, which was actually picked to end up in the Fiesta Bowl by several experts in the preseason. Back-to-back losses to Utah and Washington in September likely ended those hopes, but the Aggies are in great position to win their first conference title.

Aside from the Utah State-SDSU contest, it’s a fairly quiet week in the Mountain West. We do feel sorry for Wyoming, however. The lowly Cowboys have the misfortune of visiting an angry Boise State team that will be looking to post a big number after last week’s debacle. We’ll take the Broncos, thank you. Here are the rest of the picks against the spread for Week 8 in the Mountain West.

Results
Last week: 2-4 ATS. Overall: 23-28 ATS
Note: Games involving FCS teams had no line and have not been included in ATS picks.

Utah State (-5) at San Diego State: SDSU leads the series 10-1, but we don’t care a bit. Utah State won’t overlook the Aztecs, who are coming off an impressive 30-7 win over San Jose State. The Aztecs have won three straight and will likely capture the sorry West Division, but they’re out of their league here. Keep an eye on Aggies quarterback Kent Myers, who is 8-1 as a starter. Pick: Utah State -5

Fresno State at Air Force (-17): Tough matchup for the Bulldogs, a poor tackling team facing a triple-option offense. Air Force hasn’t trailed at any point in its first three home games, and we think that trend continues here. Air Force has won nine in a row in Colorado Springs, while the Bulldogs have lost big away from home this season. We know Fresno State can’t stop the run (or the pass, for that matter), but this number is too high. Pick: Fresno State +17

Hawaii (+7) at Nevada: What’s going on in Reno? The Wolf Pack haven’t scored in the first quarter of their three conference games and reached a new low with last week’s 28-21 loss at Wyoming. We’re a little worried coach Brian Polian is losing the team, but the Wolf Pack should get untracked against Hawaii, which has lost 22 of its last 23 road games. Pick: Nevada -7

New Mexico at San Jose State (-7.5): The Spartans took a step back with last week’s loss to SDSU, while New Mexico hung on for a 28-27 win over Hawaii. Clearly not the marquee matchup of the week, but both teams should have plenty of motivation. SJSU, which needs to win three of its final five to become bowl eligible, has struggled against triple-option offenses in the past and will again on Saturday. Pick: New Mexico +7.5

Wyoming at Boise State (-35): We usually hesitate when we see a number this large, but not this week. The Broncos crushed Wyoming 63-14 last year in Laramie, and we’re guessing it’ll be even worse in Boise on Saturday. Boise State has won 17 straight at home and probably can’t wait to get back on the field. Running back Jeremy McNichols returns after missing last week’s game due to a head injury. He might be worth 35 points alone. Pick: Boise State -35

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