How USC Trojans can pull the upset off against Utah Utes

Kyle Whittingham is finally thriving in Utah, but his toughest test looms as the team travels to Los Angeles to face an underachieving USC squad.

The No. 3 Utah Utes are on the road against an unranked USC Trojans team that is 3-3 on the season, including two consecutive defeats to Washington and Notre Dame and have an interim head coach. So then why are the Trojans 3.5 point favorites?

Surely a team that has thoroughly beaten quality opponents like Oregon and Michigan has the upper hand against the disappointing Southern California program? The rankings and the record scream blowout, but more than one media member is calling for an upset in this game, and the reasoning is sound. However, further analysis suggests this game will be just another notch in the Utes belt as they rampage through the South.

USC is probably the toughest remaining game on Utah’s schedule, and the biggest hurdle between the Utes and an undefeated regular season and likely Playoff berth. Utah will win this game, but at the same time, it is prudent to look into why so many pundits have this game circled.

When declaring Utah as a future undefeated team and playoff participant, I saw just how close these two teams have been this year. In both scoring offense and scoring defense, the two programs are incredibly close, with the Utes holding an advantage in defense (second in conference vs third for USC) while the Trojans have the slightly better offense (fifth for USC, sixth for Utah).

Looking further, it becomes difficult to understand why USC has three losses. They are fourth in the conference in total offense, third in passing offense, and first in passing efficiency. USC has a senior quarterback with an NFL future. Cody Kessler is third in the conference in passing yards per game, behind only prospective number one draft pick Jared Goff and all-passing, all-the-time Washington State quarterback Luke Falk. In terms of efficiency, he is behind only Goff.

Sophomore playmaker JuJu Smith-Schuster is one of the most dynamic players in the Pac-12 and he ranks second in total receptions and first in yards per game receiving. True freshman running back Ronald Jones is averaging a ridiculous 8.6 yards per carry. This team clearly has talent, but the talent is not matching up with the wins.

Surely some of this falls on now former Trojan head coach Steve Sarkisian, who was fired and is seeking treatment for issues with alcohol. While the actual in-game coaching might be behind some of the difficulty, a lack of accountability and discipline is the more likely culprit.

USC has been undisciplined and inconsistent in 2015, ranking eleventh in the Pac-12 in penalty yards (Utah is tied for second) per game. Their opponents in games this season have only committed 46 yards worth of penalties per game, making for a difference of over 26 yards the Trojans simply give away. Worse, while the Trojans have moved the ball well, when they get into a situation where the pressure is on, this team has cracked. They rank tenth in third down conversion rate and sixth in red zone offense. When the play really matters, this offense cannot seem to make a play.

Contrast that to Utah, which feature the Pac-12’s best red zone offense, having scored 23 times in 24 possessions, including 15 touchdowns. Utah also leads the conference in turnover margin at plus-12 (USC is at plus-3). When the plays matter, Utah comes through while USC melts down. That is why the stats look close, but the smart money’s on the Utes pulling off another victory.

Do not be fooled by the flash of the Trojans, underneath the glitz and glamour lies a mistake prone team without any confidence. Utah will win this game, and continue to prove their doubters wrong.

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