Why the Oregon Ducks will upset the Stanford Cardinal

After finally exorcising the demon that was the Cardinal last year, can the Oregon Ducks turn the tables once again and play spoiler to Stanford in 2015?

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The Oregon Ducks are having a down season, by their lofty standards. 6-3, with three regular season games remaining, and out of the Pac-12 North race barring a miracle, the Ducks are simply looking to build for the future at this point.

Sure, they can still get to a quality bowl game and show off their new age offense and shiny uniforms to some impressionable young men watching whatever bowl Oregon ends up being invited to, but dreams of a national championship or even a Pac-12 championship are over.

However, there is one thing that the Ducks can still accomplish. Something that the seniors on the team will surely be pushing hard for this week. They can play spoiler and ruin what could be a magical season for their long time nemesis, the Stanford Cardinal.

The year was 2012, and the Oregon Ducks were looking good. Ranked No. 2 nationally and sporting a perfect 10-0 record, they were hosting the Stanford Cardinal in Eugene. The Cardinal were no pushovers, ranked No. 13 and having one of the best and most physical defenses in the country. Nevertheless, this was supposed to be nothing more than a stepping stone for the Ducks to get back to the national championship game. Stanford had other ideas.

The Cardinal defense smothered the Ducks high-powered offense, kicking a field goal in overtime to beat Oregon 17-14 and ruin their hosts’ nation championship hopes. In 2013, the Oregon Ducks were 8-0 and ranked third nationally when they visited Palo Alto to play the fifth ranked Cardinal.

Once again the Stanford defense stopped the Ducks, holding them to just 20 points in a 26-20 defeat that again ended Oregon’s thoughts of a national championship. Two years in a row the Ducks had to watch as the Cardinal smashed their dreams.

While some measure of revenge was had last in years’ 45-16 victory, that was a down year for the Cardinal as Stanford would finish just 8-5. Satisfying, yes, but not the same as ending an undefeated season and a chance to play for a national title. Which brings us to 2015. Stanford is 8-1 and in complete control of the Pac-12 North division.

If the Cardinal run the table, there is almost assuredly a spot in the second annual College Football Playoff waiting for them. However, given the strength of the rest of the contenders, any single loss will knock the Cardinal out of the picture. Which means that here is finally the chance for the Oregon Ducks to give their rivals a taste of what it feels like to lose more than just a single game.

Win on Saturday and the Ducks end the championship hopes of the Cardinal program. Sweet revenge will be theirs, but can they actually do it?

That question starts on the defensive side of the ball. In 2012 and 2013, the Cardinal used a stifling defense to stop what had been the most explosive offense in the nation, holding the Ducks to just 34 total points in the two games. This year, Stanford is the team with the high-powered offense, as the Cardinal have scored 30 or more points in eight straight games.

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In fact, Stanford has the number three scoring offense in the conference (Oregon has the number one spot). The Ducks, meanwhile, are last in scoring defense(Stanford is second). The one game the Cardinal did lose this year, the opener at Northwestern, Stanford was held to just six points as both their rushing offense and their passing game were ineffective. The Wildcats held the Cardinal to just 3.1 yards per carry while limiting Stanford quarterback Kevin Hogan to only 155 yards through the air.

There is some hope that the formula that Northwestern used, stopping the early down running plays and forcing Kevin Hogan to throw down the field, can be used as a blueprint by the Ducks. Oregon’s overall defense is terrible, but their run defense is not that bad. They are sixth in the conference in rushing defense, and maybe with the added emotional boost of playing a rival, they can stop the Cardinal running game. While the passing defense is terrible, the Ducks do have 10 interceptions on the year, good for seventh in the Pac-12.

Stanford’s passing game is only used to complement their bruising rushing attack, and perhaps if the Ducks stop the run and force Hogan to throw on 3rd and long, then maybe they can hold the Cardinal point total to something manageable. Perhaps they can even pick off Hogan and give their own offense an extra possession.

On the other side of the ball, the Oregon offense is rolling again, sporting the previously mentioned top scoring offense in the conference, including the best running game. Quarterback Vernon Adams has gotten much better as the season has progressed, with his broken finger healing. Finally healthy, Adams has thrown for over 600 yards and six touchdowns in the last two games combined. His improved confidence gives an added dimension to the Oregon offense.

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So while may not give the Ducks no chance in this one, delving into the numbers you see that it is not as crazy a thought as you might imagine. Especially given the unpredictable nature of Stanford coach David Shaw’s in-game decision making.

Maybe Shaw makes a poor decision at the wrong time, giving the Ducks an extra possession or two. The Ducks are 10-point underdogs, and that is understandable given the records.

However, this Cardinal team has been known to implode on offense, while the Oregon Ducks are a much better team today than at the start of the season.

This game is going to be close, and if the Cardinal do not play a perfect game, they could see their championship hopes ended in ironic fashion by their bitter rivals.

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