College Football Odds: SEC Week 11 picks against the spread

Nov 5, 2015; Columbia, MO, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs quarterback Dak Prescott (15) in the game against the Missouri Tigers during the first half at Faurot Field. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Alabama took control of the SEC West with a win over LSU last week, but can Mississippi State beat the Tide? We pick six Week 11 SEC football games against the spread.

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The SEC Championship Game is less than a month away, and the matchup is nearly set.

Alabama took a big step forward with a dominant 30-16 victory over LSU, which coupled with Arkansas’ 53-52 overtime victory over Ole Miss, gives the Crimson Tide the inside track to Atlanta.

We were on the right side of those games in Week 10, and correctly predicted Georgia would cover against Kentucky and Auburn would cover a touchdown-spread versus Texas A&M (though we didn’t exactly see the Tigers winning in College Station).

Florida wrapped up a spot in the SEC Championship Game with a 7-6 victory over Vanderbilt, but didn’t come close to covering the 21-point spread. We were also on the wrong side of Missouri’s 31-13 loss to Mississippi State and Tennessee’s closer than expected 28-24 win over South Carolina.

However, a 4-3 slate was a welcome change following two straight losing weeks.

• 2015 Straight Up: 54-20 (.730)
• 2015 Against the Spread: 42-33 (.560)
• 2015 Over/Under: 42-33 (.560)
• Last Week Straight Up: 5-2 (.714)
• Last Week Against the Spread: 4-3 (.571)
• Last Week Over/Under: 4-3 (.571)

This week, Alabama will be challenged again with Mississippi State, and Florida faces South Carolina in Columbia. Auburn and Georgia square off in the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry, while Kentucky and Vanderbilt and LSU and Arkansas also meet in rivalry contests. Tennessee hosts North Texas in what should be a snoozer, and Ole Miss finally has a bye after ten straight games.

It has been a season-long policy to abstain from picking SEC games against the spread that feature FCS opponents, so we will not predict Texas A&M’s game with Western Carolina. We will also stay away from Missouri’s game with BYU.

Sometimes the smartest bet is the one you don’t make, and with so many uncertainties surrounding a unique situation, we’ll stick to that strategy this week because of the emotionally charged situation on campus and its unknown affect on the players’ preparations.

Of course, there are still six opportunities for action, so without further ado, we predict the rest of the Week 11 SEC football games against the spread.

Note: The point spreads that follow come via VegasInsider.com and are accurate as of Wednesday November 11, 2015. Rankings used reflect those most recently released by the College Football Playoff committee.

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