College Football Playoff Rankings: Projected top four after Week 12

Projecting the College Football Playoff rankings after Week 12 saw Ohio State lose to Michigan State and Oklahoma State lose to Baylor.

There will be a new champion in college football this winter after Ohio State saw their repeat bid fall after losing to Michigan State at the whistle as the Spartans drilled a game-winning field goal. The Buckeyes were No. 3 in the College Football Playoff rankings but their loss will the gain for a team on the outside.

Before projecting who will take the spot of Ohio State in Tuesday’s playoff rankings, let’s take a look at the other three teams who occupied the rankings.

The Clemson Tigers have been the No. 1 team and will remain in that spot after beating Wake Forest, 33-13 as they are set for their ACC Championship Game appearance against the North Carolina Tar Heels who clinched with a win against Virginia Tech on Saturday.

The No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide will remain in that spot after routing Charleston Southern, 56-6 in a glorified scrimmage before the Iron Bowl next week against the Auburn Tigers.

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Alabama didn’t clinch the SEC West because Ole Miss beat LSU, so the Tide will need to win against their bitter rivals to make it to the SEC Championship Game against Florida. Wouldn’t it be something if Auburn found a way to win and set up total anarchy and give the committee members angina while trying to figure out a top four?

That leaves two spots open for Notre Dame, Iowa, Oklahoma and Michigan State.

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Notre Dame hung on for a sloppy 19-16 win at Fenway Park against Boston College in the Shamrock Series but five turnovers, albeit against one of the nation’s best defenses, won’t endear them to the playoff committee. Their win was less impressive than Oklahoma’s over No. 18 TCU and Oklahoma has better wins than an undefeated Iowa.

I have the Fighting Irish joining Ohio State outside the top four this week and Oklahoma replacing them at No. 4 in the rankings. Oklahoma played without a concussed Baker Mayfield for the second half and stopped TCU on a 2-point try to win 30-29. Yes, TCU was without Trevone Boykin and Josh Doctson for the whole game, but it’s a win over a 9-1 ranked opponent on the heels of their win against Baylor last week. They have all the momentum.

So who will play Alabama between Iowa and Michigan State?

Michigan State now has wins at Ohio State and Michigan and wins against Oregon and Air Force in non-conference play. Iowa’s best win is against Northwestern. The committee wasn’t shy about putting a one-loss Alabama ahead of an undefeated Ohio State, so if they’re consistent Iowa’s undefeated record wouldn’t be a trump card over Michigan State.

Next two out: Notre Dame, Iowa

Notre Dame has Stanford next week and will need to blow them out and have Oklahoma lose or barely win against Oklahoma State and have Penn State beat Michigan State to get back in.

Iowa needs to beat Nebraska in the season finale and handle Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship Game. If they win out, they should be in the playoff, so they control their destiny more than Notre Dame or Oklahoma because they don’t have a conference championship game to play as an extra reminder to the playoff committee.