Russell Athletic Bowl: Baylor vs North Carolina TV info, live stream, odds, prediction, and more

The Russell Athletic Bowl features the Baylor Bears against the North Carolina Tar Heels in a game that should feature plenty of points from the Citrus Bowl in Orlando.

The North Carolina Tar Heels and the Baylor Bears are teams headed in two completely different directions. After finishing their ACC regular season slate undefeated, the Tar Heels nearly upset Clemson in the ACC Championship Game and roll into the Russell Athletic Bowl in Orlando with an offense firing on all cylinders.

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Meanwhile, Baylor has lost their top two quarterbacks to injury and three of their last four games to limp into Tuesday’s bowl game. With plenty of time to try to design the offense around third-string quarterback Chris Johnson, a QB who was playing wide receiver, the Bears look to show signs of the top-ranked offense that once was under Seth Russell and Jarrett Stidham.

But they will meet up with a North Carolina team that has become more balanced and finished 11th in the country in offense. Both of these teams average more than 40 points (Baylor 48) per game. So the question might be not who can stop who, but who can contain the other side? And if not, the question might become, who’ll have the ball last?

Everyone knew Baylor’s identity coming into this season. This was a team that would try to outshoot any other in the country, and it looked for a while as if they might’ve had the capabilities of doing so. Then their Heisman-hopeful quarterback, Seth Russell, went down with a neck injury that needed surgery.

It would only be the first of many injuries for Baylor, a team that will be without another former Heisman contender and Biletnikoff winner (for best wide receiver) Corey Coleman. Shock Linwood, their leading rusher, has a broken foot and won’t play either. Between Coleman and Linwood, that’s 31 touchdowns and nearly 3,000 yards of production that’ll be on the sidelines.

Luckily, Baylor has depth at the skill positions. Johnny Jefferson and Devin Chafin have stepped up big in replacing Linwood. Jefferson had 158 yards and a score in Baylor’s last outing, against Texas, and Chafin had 119 yards and a pair of scores the game before.

There’ll still be dynamic threats like KD Cannon, but Baylor will need Johnson to be able to open up the air attack as needed. This offense may look much more run-heavy as it did against Texas. And though Jefferson played well, for the most part, it didn’t pan out for Baylor in the end.

Now with Johnson coming in as a 39.5 percent passer, and with the loss of one of his key blockers, right tackle Pat Colbert, the Bears are going to need to put the pieces back together quickly. A team that scored 79 points against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State combined needs to be on display. The offense with 38 points against TCU and Texas together won’t cut it. Luckily for the Bears, they’ve progressed on the other side of the ball.

With All-American Andrew Billings leading the way, the defensive line has slowly rubbed off on the rest. Billings will need to stuff the running lanes as he often does to disrupt UNC’s Elijah Hood. It’ll be a tough task to hold North Carolina’s offense off, but they may only need a few stops to do so. It’ll all depend on whether the Baylor offense can find its old spark.

As for North Carolina, they’ve had plenty of it on both sides of the ball. While their run defense could have problems against Jefferson, they can turn most of their focus to him and Baylor’s other running backs.

That’s because they have confidence in the pass part of their defense, a squad that’s in the top-20 nationally in interceptions. Also 35th in scoring defense, the Tar Heels come into this game sporting a plus-eight turnover margin. That could factor in tremendously with Baylor being in the red with a minus-one in that category. And for the Heels, getting early stops will mean more than ever with Baylor’s first quarter offense on a swift decline and an offense in Chapel Hill that’s been one of the best early scorers in the country.

North Carolina’s offense has 80 first quarter points in their last five games. Yes, five quarters, 80 points. And these were against ACC opponents, one being top-ranked Clemson.

They have weapons all over the field, from senior quarterback Marquise Williams (21 passing touchdowns, 11 rushing, one receiving), running back Hood (1,345 yards on the ground) , and three 6’4″-or-taller wide outs to stretch the field. And on top of having height at the position from the dynamic Mack Collins and company, they also have a supreme route runner and spark-plug in Ryan Switzer.

In holding tough against Clemson in a 45-37 loss, Williams had his ups-and-downs, accounting for four touchdowns but without much passing efficiency that included a costly interception.

But that was a top-ten defense that North Carolina put that many points on, and it’s safe to say that Baylor is not nearly of the same caliber. With 66 points scored against Duke, another 59 on Miami, and an average of 47.4 in their last five games, North Carolina’s offense is steam-rolling through the opposition. And all of those games were against bowl teams.

But can their defense keep pace even with a depleted Baylor offense? They do have plenty of speed on that side of the ball and in a close game–or really any game for that matter–kicker Nick Weiler has been near-automatic.

It’ll be interesting to see if they’re able to jump on the board as quickly as they have been. And if they open it up early, there may not be any way of climbing back for Baylor.

• Date: Tuesday, December 29, 2015
• Time: 5:30 PM ET
• Location: Orlando Citrus Bowl, Orlando, FL
• TV Channel: ESPN
• Live Stream: WatchESPN
• Spread: Bay -3.5

Prediction

With Baylor not being as complete of a force as earlier in the season due to injuries to key players at key positions, and North Carolina having become a well-balanced offense, I look for the Tar Heels to win the Russell Athletic Bowl.

As long as North Carolina can find enough running lanes and contain Jefferson, there won’t be much reason why they shouldn’t.

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I think with early scores by the Tar Heels, Johnson will be forced to go through the air more than desired, and that will prove costly with a team who’s known for causing havoc in the secondary.