Houston should be rooting hard for Louisville and Oklahoma

If the Houston Cougars are going to make the College Football Playoff, they are most likely going to need some help. Wins by Louisville and Oklahoma will go a long way to aiding their cause.

In the immediate aftermath of the merciful and belated death of the BCS, part of the chorus of the rejoicing said it would be great to give some of the non-traditional powers a shot at the championship. However, thus far a Group of 5 team is yet to break through. Houston is looking to change that.

The Houston Cougars were an upset loss on the road to UConn last season away from making the selection committee’s job a lot harder. Their consolation prize was a trip to the Peach Bowl (one of the two possible CFP locations this season). Houston entered as a seven-point dog and walked out with a two-touchdown win over Florida State.

This year, it will be even harder to keep them out. Currently ranked sixth in the AP Poll, the Cougars may have the opportunity to take out two top 10 teams and win their conference. Pile on top of that an unbeaten record, and it will be nearly impossible to keep Houston out of the  College Football Playoff. However, to ensure a playoff berth — and maybe even a one-hiccup cushion — the Cougars still need things to break their way. According to College Football Expert Phil Steele, Houston entered the season with the 87th toughest schedule in the country. Oklahoma and Louisville need to be statement wins come December, and at least one strong challenger at the top of the American Athletic Conference would be extremely beneficial to their case.

Wish your fallen foe the best

Houston reintroduced themselves to the country in Week 1 with a 33-23 win over then-No. 3 Oklahoma. The win was even more lopsided than the final score indicates. Houston was dominant. The problem is that the No. 3 ranking is a preseason ranking that was largely discredited with upsets of Top 25 teams all over the place in Week 1. Houston needs Oklahoma to prove they are a top 10 team over the rest of the season. Houston’s ideal scenario is Oklahoma running the table and winning the Big 12. This would knock one of the Power 5 champions behind Houston in the queue for one of the four spots. That quest starts on Saturday with the current No. 3 Ohio State going to Norman. Extending the Cougars’ dream scenario, the Sooners would beat Ohio State in Week 3, but the Buckeyes would go back and win the Big Ten without dropping another game. By the transitive property, Houston would then leapfrog two Power 5 teams in the CFP rankings.

You want to beat the best

Houston’s biggest red flag on their resume is their conference. Along with the boatloads of TV network cash, it is why they are trying to leave the AAC for the Big 12. Between Oklahoma on Sept. 3 and Louisville on Nov. 17, Houston has and will play a murderer’s row of who cares. All eyes will be on H-town when the former AAC rivals lock horns on a Thursday night. The best case scenario is for Louisville to come in undefeated and as ACC Atlantic Champs with Lamar Jackson looking to sew up his Heisman. No. 10 Louisville plays No. 2 Florida State at home in Week 3, which will help to answer the question of their legitimacy. Then two weeks later, they go to No. 5 Clemson.  An undefeated Louisville will be at least No. 2 and most likely No. 1 when they play Houston under this scenario. A win would all but assure, not only a playoff berth but the top seed. Even a win over a one-loss Louisville would be helpful. If Louisville comes in with convincing defeats to both FSU and Clemson, the widespread but somewhat insane theory that the ACC will be the first conference to get two teams in will probably still be in play and that obviously hurts Houston.

A rising tide lifts all boats

One of the most obvious solutions to Houston’s strength schedule is for their conference to be better than we think it is now by raising their game to Houston’s level. The better the conference, the better the shot of making the playoff. The simplest scenario is for a power to rise in the East to match Houston in the West. East Carolina is a logical choice. The Pirates knocked off NC State and play South Carolina and Virginia Tech in Weeks 3 and 4. Three nonconference wins over teams in what will probably be the two best conferences will make for a fat pig for the Cougars to slaughter in the AAC championship game to pad their playoff resume. Cincinnati, who Houston took care of in Week 3, is the other option out of the East. They host ECU on Oct. 22.

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All of this is of course moot if Houston can’t get it done on the field themselves. Everything can break perfectly, but an off-night or an injury could completely derail their CFP chances. They were double-digit favorites against the Huskies last year. Star quarterback Greg Ward Jr. has already missed a game because of an injured throwing shoulder. The Cougars are the Group of 5’s best and first hope of cracking the illustrious Top 4. With a little luck and a lot of winning, the Houston Cougars could be playing in Tampa come Jan. 9 for the National Championship.