NFL Draft 2017: 5 reasons why Mitch Trubisky could be No. 1 pick

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Sep 26, 2015; Chapel Hill, NC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Mitch Trubisky (10) with ball as Delaware Fightin Blue Hens defensive back Tenny Adewusi (8) defends in the fourth quarter. The Tar Heels defeated the Delaware Fightin Blue Hens 41-14 at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports /

4. Defensive players are a bigger risk than QB

The Browns may be a little gun shy on Myles Garrett given the less than stellar success rate of defensive players picked first overall in the draft.

There have been 15 defensive players selected #1 overall in the common draft era (since 1967)

Less than half (7) went on to make a Pro Bowl
— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) April 11, 2017

Seven of the fifteen defensive players picked first overall went on to the pro-bowl. Translation: taking a defensive player first overall is risky business. The analytically driven Browns front office is aware of the success rate of defensive players taken first overall.

The Browns are in the middle of a rebuilding project seeking to restore some sense of even mediocrity to the team. With the first overall pick, the Browns need to take a player that will impact the team for years to come. Historically, the success rate of defensive players making an impact on the team is extremely poor.

The Browns may decide, and it may be a good decision, to bypass a defensive player at the top of the draft for the best overall quarterback in the draft. The reasoning would be simple and twofold. First, defensive players often do not make an impact on the team. Second, quarterbacks taken first overall have a high success rate.

This may be a different case given that Trubisky is not the consensus best player available at a premium position. But if the Browns take Trubisky, the lack of success of defensive players may be a contributing factor as to why.

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