Missouri Football: 2017 season preview, predictions

Defense

In Barry Odom’s year as defensive coordinator in 2015, the Missouri defense gave up the fewest points among SEC teams over the entire season and third fewest in SEC play. They held opponents to just 16.2 points, 133 yards rushing, 169 yards passing, and 302 yards of total offense per game.

When a coordinator is promoted to head coach, a couple of bad things can happen. More often than not when you promote the defensive coach who knows defense and not offense you become a team that relies entirely on its defense and has a rudimentary “don’t mess this up for our defense” offense. The other possibility is that when you promote your coordinator you lose what made him special by taking him out of directly making your defense the best it can be and placing him in a managerial role. Mizzou falls more into the latter category.

Defense tanks under new leadership

Mizzou’s defense fell off a cliff in 2016. Their points allowed nearly doubled, gave up 100 more yards per game rushing and 80 more yards per game passing. This was under the tutelage of new defensive coordinator and Odom’s fellow Missouri alum Demontie Cross.

The most embarrassing results came in four games where opposing teams ran for more than 300 yards, including LSU going for 418 yards on 52 carries. Middle Tennessee State ran for 311 yards at 7.8 yards per carry. Kentucky ran 59 times for 377 yards. Tennessee ran for 386 yards at a staggering 8.6 yards per carry.

In 2017, Missouri’s defense will be anchored by seniors at all three levels. Defensive end Marcell Frazier led the team with 7.5 sacks last season. Safeties Thomas Wilson and Anthony Sherrils are the leading returning tacklers. Eric Beisel took over the starting middle linebacker job midway through the season and tied for the team lead in tackles for loss.

Change in philosophy, change in results

There are a couple of explanations other than the coaching change for why the Tiger defense was terrible. Mizzou’s offense turned the pace way up. Think of any Chip Kelly team. His defenses were famous for getting tired and steamrolled because the offense scored or went three and out in under 10 seconds and the defense got no rest. Mizzou was also ravaged by injuries.

Part of the problem was the scheme put in at the defensive line. Odom and his staff changed to more of a “read and react” style. This sent the sack numbers plummeting. The Tigers had just 11 sacks through the first eight games. Odom made the call to let the defensive linemen pin their ears back, and the sack totals shot back up.

In the last four games, the Tigers had 16 sacks and won two of their final three games. The season high of six came in a win over Vanderbilt. The late season burst got the sack total back to 27, just one shy of 2015’s 28.