College Football: Best case and worst case scenarios for 15 top team

Andrew Hammond

TAMPA, FL - JANUARY 09: Head coach Dabo Swinney of the Clemson Tigers looks on before taking on the Alabama Crimson Tide in the 2017 College Football Playoff National Championship Game at Raymond James Stadium on January 9, 2017 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

College football seasons can go up, down or completely out of control. No team or fanbase is safe. Here’s the full range of outcomes for 15 top teams.

Each season, you as a fan of college football want to have some type of optimism for your school as they start another year. You want to have the hopes, the dreams and the optimism as the new season kicks off.

Then there is the nightmare scenario, that moment you realize that your team is going to struggle and you honestly don’t want to think about it. You have convinced yourself that your team is going to have a fantastic season, but when the nightmare of bitter disappointment becomes reality you have not choice but to accept your fate.

When scanning the college football map, I’ve detailed the 15 schools that have the most compelling best and worst case scenarios in 2017. While these are not predictions of what will happen, do not be shocked if they do end up happening.

Ohio State

Best Case

Ohio State’s offense takes the form of what we’ve seen from them in 2012, 2013 and 2014 with new offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson. Quarterback J.T. Barrett has a career season and heads to New York City for the 2017 Heisman ceremony. The Buckeyes roll into the college football playoff undefeated and defeat Alabama in the Sugar Bowl (yes, again) to move on and beat USC in the College Football Playoff title game.

Worst Case

The Buckeyes offense is good but not great throughout the season and their inconsistencies finally cost them in an October 14th showdown at Nebraska. The defense becomes ravaged with injuries and while there’s talent to replace them, the inexperience is apparent as the Buckeyes lose two pivotal games in November (at Iowa and at Michigan) knocking them out of the discussion for a New Year’s Six Bowl.

Texas

Best Case

What should’ve happened in Charlie Strong’s first season finally happens under Tom Herman. The Longhorns are back on the national scene. Texas begins their return to the national stage by stunning the USC Trojans on the road in Los Angeles. Even though the Longhorns lose in the Big 12 title game to Oklahoma State, the nation’s number one defense makes their way to the Cotton Bowl as an at-large team and they defeat Charlie Strong’s South Florida squad in a sort of Shakespearean fashion.

Worst Case

Texas struggles to find a solid number one QB in 2017 as the incumbent Shane Buechele and freshman Sam Ehlinger each fail to be consistent. Despite returning 10 starters on defense in 2017, the Longhorns continue to struggle keeping teams off the scoreboard but do manage to make a bowl game. Even with the school’s first bowl appearance since 2014, the Longhorns leave season in about the same space they come into this season as a team that has the potential to be great but gets in their own way.

Michigan

Best Case

Wilton Speight becomes the man. After a season of inconsistencies and folding in the big moment we see a new and improved Speight as the leads the Wolverines to a surprising season. Losses at Penn State and Wisconsin knock the Wolverines out of any conference or national title hopes. However, if Michigan can’t have anything to play for then they make sure Ohio State doesn’t either. The Wolverines ruin the Buckeyes season and Michigan becomes one of the favorites to win the national title next season.

Worst Case

Michigan is expected to take a step back in 2017. Not only do they take a step back, but they practically moonwalk to mediocrity. With just five returning starters in all, Michigan’s growing pains last an entire season. Wilton Speight struggles to retain his job at starting quarterback as John O’Korn and Brandon Peters both get shots at the job. The Wolverines season ends with an Armed Forces Bowl victory but there’s very few people happy when it comes to Michigan’s 2017 season.

(Photo by Scott Cunningham/Getty Images)

Florida

Best Case

The Gators manage to fight through the struggle of having seven players sit out the first game of the season and they out tough the Michigan Wolverines at Cowboys Stadium. From there the Gators show they are the class of the SEC East. As they roll into the yearly Florida-Georgia showdown, the Gators all-but clinch the SEC East as they take out Georgia 24-18. For the 3rd straight season, Florida loses to Alabama in the SEC title game. They bounce back with a New Year’s Six bowl victory as they beat Clemson in the Orange Bowl.

Worst Case

Florida’s quarterbacking woes continue to cause stress for fans of the orange and blue. Three quarterbacks manage to go under center and all three struggle. As the SEC East flounders in mediocrity, the Gators manage to still have an outside shot at winning the division but those hopes go up in flames as they are shutout by South Carolina in the final conference game of the season.

Louisville

Best Case

Louisville defies the odds (which is silly enough to say in the first place) as the Cardinals prove that 2016 was no fluke. They not only right the wrongs of last season, but they win the ACC Atlantic division. As the Cardinals beat Clemson in the third game of the season they win the tiebreaker over both Clemson and Florida State. Although the Cardinals don’t make the playoffs Lamar Jackson makes history by winning his second straight Heisman as he joins Archie Griffin as the only men to do so.

Worst Case

Like we saw in Louisville’s late season games against Houston, Kentucky and LSU, teams have figured out Lamar Jackson. The things that worked a year ago for Louisville don’t work. The early season gauntlet sees Louisville struggle to an 3-2 start. The bottom falls out for Louisville during a 42-30 loss to North Carolina State. Lamar Jackson gets knocked around and ends up missing a few games. Jackson ends his career with a victory in the Pinstripe Bowl.

Clemson

Best Case

There will be no Clemsoning in 2017. The Tigers maintain their defensive prowess and roll to another ACC title. Even with the slow start, Kelly Bryant becomes the proper replacement for Deshaun Watson making the All-ACC Second Team at the end of the season. In the College Football Playoff, Clemson stuns Alabama for the second straight season to reach the CFP title game where they defeat Ohio State 31-28.

Worst Case

Heavy is the head that wears the crown, and the crown is too heavy for the Tigers as they fall to 1-2 in 2017. The Kelly Bryant vs. Hunter Johnson quarterback battle dominates the first few months of the season. Johnson supplants Bryant as the starting quarterback and Clemson finishes the season strong with a bowl victory, but it’s clear that it’s a season of “what could’ve been”.

Notre Dame

Best Case

Notre Dame won’t go 4-8 in 2017. Sorry to disappoint everybody. The Fighting Irish use early season victories over Georgia and Michigan State to set up a showdown with No. 2 USC in prime time. Even though USC wins the game, Notre Dame proves that they are a prime contender for a New Year’s Six Bowl. Their last chance at reaching the NY6 is a showdown with Stanford. The Irish lose but still get a controversial bid into the Peach Bowl.

Worst Case

Notre Dame won’t go 4-8 in 2017, they go 5-7. The struggles, the inconsistencies and excuses from Brian Kelly continue into this season. A midseason meltdown by the Irish spell doom for Kelly as he is informed prior to the Stanford game that he will be coaching his final game for the Irish. Kelly joins Charlie Weis as the second straight Irish head coach to end his Notre Dame career in a game vs. Stanford.

LSU

Best Case

Danny Etling leads LSU to a New Year’s Six bowl. This very sentence should scare anybody. But with a running game and solid defense, the Tigers find their way to the top of the SEC. Yes they lose to Alabama for the eighth straight time, but that is the only loss they suffer on their way to an appearance in the Orange Bowl.

Worst Case

The gamble that Joe Alleva took on hiring Ed Oregeron full-time doesn’t pay off and now LSU is in a stage of purgatory. The offense continues to struggle with Danny Etling which then filters to the running game where standout running back Derius Guice struggles to stay healthy during the season. The season finally ends with a 6-6 LSU. Going into 2018, “Coach O” is on the hot seat.

Washington

Best Case

Revenge is a dish best served cold but in Washington’s case, revenge will be rosy. The Huskies continue their Pac-12 dominance into 2017 as they finish the season undefeated. In the conference title game, they’ll take out fellow undefeated USC to reach the College Football Playoff. In the Rose Bowl, they’ll defeat Alabama and reach the final where they lose to Ohio State.

Worst Case

Washington’s return to glory stays in 2016 as the Huskies struggle to survive an early conference schedule. Suffering back to back stunning losses at Colorado and Oregon State force the Huskies have to climb out of a 0-2 conference hole. Washington rebounds and has a chance to make the North Division race interesting with a victory at Stanford, but the Huskies come up short as Washington misses a 43 yard field goal as time expires. That costs the Huskies any chance at a Pac-12 title game appearance.

Penn State

Best Case

Penn State took America by surprise in 2016 and the had some luck along the way. In 2017 that luck returns. While being inconsistent at times throughout the early part of the 2017 season, the Nittany Lions recapture the magic from a year ago. In back to back weeks, Penn State uses a late field goal vs. Michigan and a late turnover to jump into the Big Ten east division lead for good. Saquon Barkley becomes the first Nittany Lion to finish in the top 10 of the Heisman voting since 2005. The storybook sequel comes to an end in the Sugar Bowl as Alabama outclasses the Nittany Lions with a 42-28 victory.

Worst Case

Penn State falls victim to expectations and the perils that come with being a conference favorite. An early season loss vs. Pitt compounded by a three game losing streak midseason puts the Nittany Lions in danger of missing a bowl game. James Franklin manages to get the squad to a bowl game, but it’s clear that playing in the Pinstripe or Music City Bowl is far from what PSU supporters wanted this season.

Florida State

Best Case

2017 becomes the year of Deondre Francois. The second year quarterback loses a heartbreaker to Alabama to start the season, but gains more respect from the nation in defeat. Francois plays much better than he did last season for it’s entirety and is rewarded with the 2017 Heisman Trophy. Florida State gains a matter of revenge on Alabama and beats the Crimson Tide in the College Football Playoff Championship Game, giving the ACC it’s second straight national title.

Worst Case

Even though Deondre Francois and Florida State manage to make a run at Alabama, they suffer a 34-24 defeat in the first game of the season. However, that game is the start of a rocky month to the season where Florida State loses to both Miami and NC State putting the Noles out of all title races. Two more late season losses to Clemson and Florida put the Noles in prime position for a bowl that’s going to be well before New Year’s Day.

Oklahoma State

Best Case

For the first time since the 2005-06 season, a team from the Big 12 finally wins a national title. The Oklahoma State Cowboys live up to the preseason hype and steamroll their way though the Big 12. Mason Rudolph breaks all sorts of Big 12 and national records for passing in a season. It’s all capped off by legendary performances vs. Clemson in the Sugar Bowl and Alabama in the national title game.

Worst Case

An early season trip to Pitt spells doom for the Cowboys as Oklahoma State struggles on offense and is upset 27-24. The Big 12 schedule doesn’t get any easier as the Cowboys lose to Texas, Oklahoma and TCU as they are knocked out from any playoff or conference title contention. A trip to the Texas Bowl is given to the Cowboys while they watch in-state rival Oklahoma make their second straight trip to the College Football Playoff.

Oklahoma

Best Case

Oklahoma’s first season under Lincoln Riley is a memorable one, the Sooners get revenge on a midseason loss to Oklahoma State by beating the Cowboys in the Big 12 title game. Later that night, USC is upset by Washington to open up the final spot in the CFP for guess who? Oklahoma. The Sooners eventually lose to Alabama in the Sugar Bowl but it is clear that things are looking up for Riley and Sooners in 2018 and beyond.

Worst Case

Although Lincoln Riley gets the Sooners to a bowl game, it’s clear that the season was a big disappointment. Losses at Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Baylor are one thing but having your undefeated season wrecked by Texas in the Cotton Bowl is worse. The Sooners finish 7-5 and even with just on season on the job, Lincoln Riley is already on the hot seat.

USC

Best Case

Like the 2003 Orange Bowl was the launching pad for the USC dynasty of the early to mid 2000’s, the 2017 Rose Bowl will serve the same purpose. With Sam Daronld leading the way, USC returns to glory and reaches the College Football Playoff Championship Game where they go head to head with Alabama. For the second straight season, an NFL bound quarterback beats Alabama with a late touchdown capping off a spectacular season. Sam Darnold leaves USC with a Heisman, national title and the luxury of being the top pick in the 2018 NFL Draft.

Worst Case

USC’s struggles last season were in part due to quarterback consistency and defensive breakdowns. Well guess what returns in 2017? Yep, more of the same. After barely scraping by Texas early in the season we start to see cracks in the USC armor. A loss to Stanford a home hurts, but it’s early and we don’t see the Trojans feel too much of an effect from the loss. However, a three game losing streak officially puts their season in the trash capped off by a 45-17 loss at Arizona State. The Trojans are widely seen as the biggest disappointment of the 2017 season.

Alabama

Best Case

One thing all Nick Saban-led programs thrive on is positive consistency. the Tide finally find that consistency once again in 2017. We see one the most high-powered Alabama offenses we’ve seen under Saban. As the Tide average close to 35 points a game, the defense remains one of the nation’s best. Alabama ends it’s steamrolling season with a 41-28 victory over USC in the title game.

Worst Case

Under new OC Brian Daboll, the offense struggles to get off the ground like we saw with Lane Kiffin and Steve Sarkisian in both the playoff and title games. Even though Alabama beats Florida State in the season opener, the Tide are less than impressive. Bo Scarbrough’s health and Jalen Hurts inconsistency prompts a change at quarterback midseason.

Next: Ranking the top 50 players in college football in 2017

Highly touted freshman Tua Tagovailoa takes over and does well until he runs into an LSU defense that gives the freshman his worst outing by far as a college QB. Alabama’s final nail in the coffin comes when Auburn outscores the Tide in a 48-39 shootout. Those losses to both LSU and Auburn knock the Tide out of any chance to reach the New Year’s Six, leaving Nick Saban very, very unhappy.

Andrew Hammond