Louisville football vs. North Carolina: Preview, predictions, TV channel

Louisville football takes on North Carolina in Week 2 action. Can UNC bottle up Lamar Jackson and pull off the upset at home or will the Cardinals roll?

The No. 17 Louisville Cardinals (1-0) open the ACC season in Chapel Hill on Saturday against the North Carolina Tar Heels (0-1). While the Cardinals come to town as double-digit favorites and led by a Heisman winner, the Heels are definitely not scared.

The season’s first great bulletin board material was provided by UNC’s Andre Smith. This week the junior linebacker said, “We definitely don’t want it to be the Lamar Jackson show… He’s not going to beat us. We’re just going to stop anything that he tries to do.”

Those are confident words from a defense that got torched by an inferior quarterback and team last week. The Heels lost 35-30 to Cal, a team picked to finish at the bottom of the Pac-12, as 13-point favorites on their own field. UNC gave up 469 total yards to the Bears — 363 yards and four touchdowns through the air.

The Cardinals meanwhile took care of business on a neutral field against Purdue 35-28. Lamar Jackson showed his growth by being more of a pocket passer. The junior completed 30 of 46 passes for 378 yards and two touchdowns. He still ran 21 times for 107 yards.

This is Louisville’s first trip to Chapel Hill since 2011 and the teams’ first meeting since 2012 when the Cardinals were still in the Big East.

Here’s how you can watch Saturday’s Louisville Cardinals vs. North Carolina Tar Heels game:

Date: Saturday, Sept. 9
Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
Location: Chapel Hill, NC
Venue: Kenan Stadium
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: WatchESPN

Keys to Victory

Andre Smith may be delusional, but he’s right to make stopping Lamar Jackson a prerequisite for a Carolina victory. The Heels must limit the big play. The good news for UNC’s defense under new defensive coordinator John Papuchis is that they held Cal to just 3 yards per carry when they were the 109th-ranked rushing defense last season. The bad news is their 12th-ranked passing defense gave up nearly 400 yards, and they will be facing a far better quarterback this week.

Larry Fedora also needs to decide on a quarterback and running back. He flip-flopped both positions last week to a maddening degree. Freshmen Chazz Surratt and Michael Carter distinguished themselves and need to play more this week.  Grad transfer Brandon Harris was terrible in his first start for the Heels. He threw two interceptions and completed just 7 of his 16 attempts for 60 yards. Surratt took over the game and led all but one drive in the second half. He showed real toughness and poise with his 18-of-28 for 161 yards with one touchdown passing and 16 carries for 66 yards and another touchdown rushing. Carter only got 11 carries even though he ran for 94 yards and two touchdowns. Fedora needs to ride the hot hand.

With big favorites, the keys to victory are pretty simple and cliched. Louisville needs to play their game and not turn the ball over. North Carolina cannot stop the Cardinals if they play up to their ability. The Louisville secondary, led by Jaire Alexander, will test the inexperienced and inaccurate Carolina quarterbacks.

Prediction

I do not share Smith’s irrational confidence that Carolina has fixed their defense in one week. Lamar Jackson and the Louisville receiving corps will exploit the same deficiencies Cal did. The added pressure Jackson causes will balloon the rushing numbers and further exacerbate the big play mistakes in the secondary with everyone’s eyes in the backfield watching the speedy quarterback in case he takes off.

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Purdue scored 28 points, so the Heels will contribute their fair share of points to take the game over the huge 63-point total. Unfortunately, I do not see an end to Fedora’s indecisiveness at quarterback. Surratt may get the start, but he has not given up on Harris. At running back, Carter joins the distinguished line of Giovanni Bernard and Elijah Hood as dominant running backs that have fans scratching their heads as to why they can’t get 20 carries a game and disappear for long stretches in this offense.

Final Score: Louisville 45, North Carolina 31