Boise State Football: Game preview and prediction vs. New Mexico

Last year, Boise State routed New Mexico 49-21 in Albuquerque. Here is our preview and prediction for this year’s showdown.

New Mexico heads to Idaho to face Boise State on the Smurf Turf at Albertsons Stadium. Just the ninth meeting between the two schools, this game is quickly becoming a heated rivalry now that the Broncos and the Lobos play in the same division of the Mountain West.

Both teams come into the conference opener reeling from tough losses. New Mexico fell 30-28 against New Mexico State, the second straight year that the Lobos have lost the Rio Grande Rivalry to the Aggies. Boise State is coming off a triple-overtime heartbreaker against No. 20 Washington State, losing 47-44 to the Cougars after giving away a 30-10 lead in the fourth quarter.

Sporting identical 1-1 records, these two teams have taken very different routes to get to their Thursday night showcase to kick off Week 3 action. With questions at quarterback for both teams, the preseason prediction for how this game would transpire can pretty much be thrown out the window. This Mountain West matchup is a great way to kick off your college football weekend early.

Here’s how to watch Thursday’s Boise State vs. New Mexico game:

Date: Thursday, Sept. 14
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Location: Boise, Idaho
Venue: Albertsons Stadium
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: WatchESPN

Keys to Victory

For New Mexico to win, it has to get its ground game going again. For the past several years, they have been among the top 10 teams in the nation at running the ball. Right now, they rank just 40th in the FBS at an average of 217.5 yards per game. That isn’t going to cut it for Bob Davie’s triple-option offense.

The question remains, though, about which quarterback will start for the Lobos. Veteran starter Lamar Jordan has been mediocre (at best) so far this season. Davie has spoken highly about Tevaka Tuioti, the redshirt freshman who stepped in for Jordan and led New Mexico to 23 points in a narrow rivalry loss.

For Boise State, the question becomes whether Brett Rypien will be healthy enough to play after suffering a head injury in the loss to Washington State. If he is not ready to go, there is little controversy. If he is healthy, the Broncos coaching staff will have a hard choice to make about whether to play Rypien or graduate transfer Montell Cozart.

Rypien has the experience in the Broncos offense, but Cozart presents a dual-threat option who has ably filled in for his teammate. With playmakers like Alexander Mattison and Cedrick Wilson, whatever quarterback Boise State chooses will face a team susceptible to big plays through the air.

Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of Sportsbook Review

Point Spread: Boise State -14.5
Over/Under: 58.5

Prediction

At this point, the Broncos are in much better shape than the Lobos. I thought New Mexico would keep it close when looking at this game during the preseason. But the simple fact is that Boise State has proven itself against a much tougher schedule at this point.

NEXT: College Football: Top 50 breakout candidates for 2017

Cozart will get the start for Boise State, and he will air out the ball on the Lobos secondary. Look for Cedrick Wilson to get at least 150 receiving yards and possibly even a double century along with at least two touchdown catches. Mattison and Ryan Wolpin will combine to rush for 150 gritty yards against a tough Lobos front seven, but it won’t be enough to push the visitors to an upset.

Final Score: Boise State 42, New Mexico 24

Last year, Boise State routed New Mexico 49-21 in Albuquerque. Here is our preview and prediction for this year’s showdown.

Home/Mountain West