Boise State Football: Game preview and prediction vs. Virginia

Boise State football faces an old foe when former BYU coach Bronco Mendenhall brings Virginia to Idaho. Here is our preview and prediction for Broncos vs Cavaliers.

Last year, Bronco Mendenhall left BYU after over a decade in Provo to take over at Virginia. The longtime Cougars head coach had faced Boise State four times, winning twice over the Broncos. Mendenhall has already doubled his win total with the Cavaliers after going 2-10 at the school last season. He will look to win the rubber match against his old nemesis in a prime-time showcase on Friday night.

Now Virginia faces another stiff test ahead of ACC play. The Cavaliers offer Boise State another opportunity to take down a Power Five school after falling in triple overtime to Washington State in Week 2. Boise State’s biggest rivals in the Mountain West, San Diego State and Colorado State, have both claimed wins over Power Five schools already, and the Broncos will look to keep pace with a statement win of their own.

Virginia is making a novel trip for the team, having never played on the Smurf Turf in Boise prior to Thursday’s showdown. The only prior meeting between these schools resulted in a 56-14 blowout in Charlottesville in 2015. That loss helped push Mike London out the door and brought Mendenhall to town. Will things be different this time around for the Cavaliers?

Here’s how to watch Friday’s game between Boise State and Virginia:

Date: Friday, Sept. 22
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
Location: Boise, Idaho
Venue: Albertsons Stadium
TV: ESPN2
Live Stream: WatchESPN

Keys to Victory

For Boise State, it all comes down to which quarterback plays against Virginia. Brett Rypien sat out the New Mexico win after being knocked from the Washington State game with an injury, but he is back on the practice field this week. Montell Cozart looked good in relief against the Lobos, offering a running element that Rypien lacks in his game.

Two years ago, though, Rypien torched the Cavaliers for 321 yards and three touchdowns when Boise State won on the road. Cozart lacks the passing touch Rypien brings to the field, but his running could be critical. While Virginia ranks 30th in the FBS in passing yards allowed, they rank 87th in rushing defense. Alexander Mattison and Ryan Wolpin will need to have solid performances as well.

For Virginia to pull off the upset as a double-digit underdog on the road, they will need to limit both penalties and turnovers. The Cavaliers have yet to give up a fumble this year, but Boise State’s disruptive front will look to change that. If Virginia is to win, the biggest key will be time. Not only will the Cavaliers need to control the clock, but they will also need to make sure Kurt Benkert has enough time to find open receivers. The Broncos currently rank 13th nationally with 10 sacks in three games.

Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of Sportsbook Review

Point Spread: Boise State -11.5
Over/Under: 50.5

Prediction

Virginia is certainly an improving team. After falling on hard times during Mike London’s time leading the program, Bronco Mendenhall is certainly proving to have the right demeanor to lead this team long-term back toward periodic ACC contention. They should definitely reach a bowl game this season.

On Friday night, though, Mendenhall’s team will remain stuck at two wins in 2017. Wolpin is going to batter the Virginia front seven for big yardage, and Bryan Harsin will likely split time between his two quarterbacks. Look for Cozart to start the game, and Virginia to keep things relatively close. It should be somewhere in the neighborhood of 17-10 Boise State at halftime.

Next: Week 4 Group of Five Power Rankings

Then Rypien will come into the game at some point midway through the third quarter after a Cozart rushing touchdown puts the Broncos up two scores. The veteran will have another big game against the Cavaliers in a single half, throwing for two touchdowns and getting 175 or more yards on 75-percent passing. Virginia will get a late touchdown to make the score more respectable, but the Broncos are going to cover the spread with ease on Friday night to make their statement against a Power Five team.

Final Score: Boise State 38, Virginia 17