Texas A&M Football: Game preview and prediction vs. Arkansas

On Saturday, Texas A&M football squares off against Arkansas at AT&T Stadium in a neutral-site SEC showdown between the former SWC rivals.

For the second straight season, Texas A&M and Arkansas square off in AT&T Stadium in September for an early SEC showdown. The 2017 edition marks the seventh time in the past nine seasons that these two teams will meet at the home of the Dallas Cowboys. The two former Southwest Conference rivals resumed this series as a non-conference game back in 2009.

They were then were then reunited in the SEC West when the Aggies jumped from the Big 12 in 2012. Last year, the game was an undefeated showdown between two 3-0 teams. This season, it is far less glamorous on the Week 4 calendar. The Aggies limp into this game 2-1 after they blew a 34-point lead at UCLA and won two uninspiring games against FCS Nicholls State and Louisiana-Lafayette.

Arkansas is not in much better shape. The Razorbacks blew out FCS Florida A&M in their season opener in Little Rock. On their return to campus, however, Bret Bielema’s team was soundly beaten by another former SWC rival. TCU came to Fayetteville and took down Arkansas 28-7 in Week 2. The Razorbacks have had a week off to regroup and prepare for Texas A&M after the defeat.

Both teams feature coaches on the hot seat. Kevin Sumlin has gotten most of the attention for the pressure on him in College Station. Meanwhile, Bielema has failed to replicate the success he enjoyed at Wisconsin — or even the success Houston Nutt and Bobby Petrino brought to Fayetteville. Both coaches will be desperate to start their SEC schedules with a win. Which one will actually get his wish?

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Here’s how to watch Saturday’s game between Texas A&M and Arkansas:

Date: Saturday, Sept. 23
Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
Location: Arlington, Texas
Venue: AT&T Stadium
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: WatchESPN

Keys to Victory

For Arkansas to prevail over the Aggies for the first time since 2011, they will need Austin Allen to finally start throwing the ball. Texas A&M’s secondary is susceptible to giving up big plays, and Allen will need to figure out how to exploit those opportunities. So far this year, though, he has regressed as a passer. He couldn’t even reach 150 passing yards against Florida A&M. Allen needs to snap back for Arkansas to have a shot in this contest.

For Texas A&M, it is a rare opportunity to rehabilitate their defensive numbers. Because Allen has been so bad so far this season, the Aggies can focus on stopping the Razorbacks on the ground. If Sumlin’s defense can win the battle in the trenches, it will put that much more pressure on Allen to perform. It could result in turnovers generated by the secondary as they rebound from several bad games.

The Aggies also need freshman quarterback Kellen Mond to have a big game in his third career start. He went for 301 yards and three touchdowns against the Ragin’ Cajuns last week. Mond now faces the biggest test yet of his young career, as the Razorbacks bring a top-15 passing defense to AT&T Stadium on Saturday. If he can break Arkansas in the air, Mond will lead the Aggies to victory once again.

Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of Sportsbook Review

Point Spread: Texas A&M -2.5
Over/Under: 56.5

Prediction

It feels like this should be a close game, given the SEC affiliation and the long history between these schools. But since Kevin Sumlin arrived in College Station, he has owned this rivalry game. That should once again be the case this year as the Aggies win a sixth straight against Arkansas on Saturday.

Mond will not be perfect, as he throws an interception to go with 250 passing yards and two touchdowns. Keith Ford and Trayveon Williams will have a big game in the A&M backfield, as the team finishes with 200 yards on the ground. After finally putting together a convincing second half against UL-Lafayette, the Aggies will play their first complete effort of the season.

Next: 10 Bold predictions for the Aggies in SEC play

If not for a fourth-quarter swoon against UCLA, the Aggies would be undefeated right now despite all their blemishes. Arkansas has far greater issues offensively. Their defense will keep them in the game for the first half, but the Aggies will pull away in the third quarter to move to 3-1 on the season and begin SEC play with a win.

Final Score: Texas A&M 31, Arkansas 20