San Diego State Football: Game preview, prediction, live stream vs. NIU

San Diego State football survived its trip to Air Force to remain unbeaten. Will the Aztecs move to 5-0 on Saturday against Northern Illinois?

It wasn’t pretty, but San Diego State stayed undefeated after its road trip to Air Force. The Falcons pushed the Aztecs to the limit and even had a late lead in the fourth quarter. But Rashaad Penny’s third touchdown run of the night sealed victory for the Aztecs as they moved to 4-0 on the season.

After getting the team’s first conference win of the year, San Diego State will wrap up its non-conference schedule in Week 5 at home. The Aztecs welcome Northern Illinois, which dominated the MAC West for years before recently tapering off. NIU, though, looks ready to contend for the division once again after starting the season 2-1 with a big win over Nebraska on the road.

Last year the Aztecs won 42-28 in DeKalb in the first meeting between these two schools since 1971. San Diego State has won all three contests against Northern Illinois. The Huskies head to Qualcomm Stadium trying to get their first-ever win in the non-conference series. Which Group of Five contender will ultimately emerge victorious on Saturday night in San Diego?

Here’s how to watch Saturday’s game between San Diego State and Northern Illinois:

Date: Saturday, Sept. 30
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Location: San Diego, Calif.
Venue: Qualcomm Stadium
TV: CBS Sports Network
Live Stream: CBS Sports

Keys to Victory

San Diego State needs to clamp down on NIU’s running game more than anything. The Huskies have struggled to keep quarterbacks healthy, and much of their success has been predicated on churning out hard yards on the ground.

On offense, the Aztecs will need Rashaad Penny’s usual productivity against a Northern Illinois defense that is giving up fewer than 100 rushing yards per game. Rocky Long’s team also needs Christian Chapman to continue playing efficiently at quarterback. He doesn’t need to post a 300-yard game by any means, but Chapman does need to provide decent balance to keep the NIU defense honest.

For the Huskies, pulling off the upset on the road will come down to whether or not they can keep up their solid rushing defense against one of the best backs in the country. Penny’s productivity has been absurd this season, with his least-productive game still netting 128 yards and three touchdowns. If NIU can bottle up San Diego State’s star running back and force Chapman to beat them with his arm, they could hang around in this contest.

Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of Sportsbook Review

Point Spread: San Diego State -11
Over/Under: 44.5

Prediction

After surviving the trap in Colorado Springs, San Diego State will be alert for the challenge presented by Northern Illinois on Saturday. The Aztecs will not take the Huskies lightly. Rashaad Penny is going to make the NIU defensive numbers climb as he rushes for over 150 yards and at least two touchdowns.

Christian Chapman will also go over 200 passing yards, with another couple of touchdowns through the air. Meanwhile, the Aztecs defense will win the turnover battle with a couple of interceptions and a fumble recovery as they stifle the NIU offense. San Diego State will turn at least two of those turnovers into quick points as they pull out to a big lead. By halftime, San Diego State will already be out ahead of the point spread.

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This contest could get ugly quickly, as the Aztecs knock one of their competitors out of the mix for the Group of Five berth in a New Year’s Six bowl game. By late in the third quarter, Rocky Long and his staff will begin pulling the starters off the field and getting their backups more experience. While Northern Illinois could still be in the hunt for the MAC this year, a major bowl game will fall out of reach on Saturday night.

Final Score: San Diego State 41, Northern Illinois 17