SMQ: What would it take for UCF to reach the College Football Playoff?

5. A few Power Five favorites need to lose conference championships

Even if all of these other factors fall into place for UCF, a spot in the College Football Playoff is hardly a guarantee. What would really push them over the top is for several favorites to lose their shot at the title by losing to heavy underdogs in the respective Power Five conference championship games on the first weekend of December.

Back in 2012, the perfect storm launched Northern Illinois into position to take advantage of automatic-qualifying stipulations for mid-majors. UCLA fell to Stanford in the Pac-12 championship game, Wisconsin blew out Nebraska for the Big Ten title, and Kansas State felled Texas at the last hurdle. Those losses sent surprise conference champions to major bowl games, and opened the door for the Huskies to go to Miami to play Florida State.

For that to happen this season, teams like Wisconsin would need not only to lose, but to lose to a team other than Ohio State or Penn State. Imagine a scenario where Michigan State pulls off the surprise and lands in the title game in Indianapolis. The Big 12 championship game could see several two-loss teams play one another. Imagine also if LSU were to face a one-loss Georgia team in the SEC championship and win, and the Pac-12 championship featured two-loss Stanford and Arizona.

UCF needs several of these upsets to transpire to further clear the path for a surprise invitation into one of the semifinal games.