College Football Playoff 2017: Case for the Penn State Nittany Lions

Can Penn State make the Playoff?

Yes, there is certainly a chance for Penn State to still make the end of the season top four as long as they win their remaining games. They need to get help beyond their control though.

If Penn State is 11-1 and somehow Ohio State loses two of their next four, the Lions are in the Big Ten championship game again. Win that game and they are a lock. Even without a Big Ten championship, Penn State has a shot to be in. There are upsets every week and November is sure to be no different. Expect to see the initial final four to be fluid over the next month.

There is precedent from last year with Penn State now potentially being on the other side. Last year, Ohio State lost to Penn State and still made the playoff final four. This despite Penn State winning the Big Ten championship and the head to head win over Ohio State. But the committee viewed Ohio State’s body of work better with one loss compared to the Lions two losses. Who is to say the same scenario does not play out again this year? Ohio State loses another game but still ends up in Indianapolis and wins. Perhaps the committee will like a one loss Penn State over a two loss Ohio State with a championship.

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Another scenario could play out where Ohio State wins out and wins the Big Ten championship, but the committee selects two Big Ten teams. Ohio State and they like one loss Penn State over a one loss Wisconsin. There is no precedent for the committee to take two teams from the same conference but there is no specific criteria against it, especially when there are strong contenders for it to happen from both the SEC and Big Ten.

We’ll peg Penn State’s odds at getting into the playoff at 25 percent for now, but certainly things will change over the month of November.