Ohio State Football: 3 bold predictions vs. Michigan State in Week 11

1. Ohio State covers the spread

This may not seem very bold, either, as Las Vegas isn’t known for making too crazy of point spreads, but approximately 15 points as a spread does seem like an awful lot for Ohio State. That means Vegas thinks they really win by 12, but are allowing the three points for being the home team.

Moreover, 15 points is a large spread for a team that just lost to Iowa being favored over a team that beat Penn State. However, I think the gamblers see the same metrics that Bill C sees. Those metrics erase recency bias and look at the data — Ohio State’s offense should outscore the MSU defense while the OSU defense should manhandle the Spartans’ offense.

Ohio State is the better team as far as resume goes as well as overall talent. Add in Urban Meyer’s three national titles and his undefeated season in Columbus with the bowl ban and the Buckeyes have a coaching edge along with a talent edge.

Now I’m not saying Mark Dantonio isn’t a great coach. The man has done more with Sparty than Nick Saban, John L. Smith or anyone else has done in the past few decades. I just think you can’t outweigh almost anything with three national titles.

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Ohio State wins this game 28-10 which covers the 15 points and keeps the Buckeyes in the playoff hunt if they can get into the Big Ten title game and upset Wisconsin who will be undefeated if things shake out the way the Badgers plan on them.