College Football Playoff: Building the perfect chaos scenario

4. 2-loss Oklahoma State wins the Big 12, misses Playoff

It’s not hard to envision the Big 12 missing the Playoff again. If every school finishes with two losses none of them will have a record that compares to a 1-loss Notre Dame or a 2-loss Auburn. That forces the Playoff committee to choose between an undefeated UCF and a 2-loss team that lacks more than one marquee win compared to Auburn’s three top-shelf victories.

In this scenario the Big 12 Championship Game is rematch of Bedlam. Good fun, but not great for the Big 12. To get there the Sooners need to beat TCU in Week 11 but drop one of their remaining conference games against Kansas or West Virginia. Losing to the Jayhawks doesn’t seem realistic, but dropping a shootout against Will Grier and West Virginia is within the realm of possibility.

TCU, after losing to Oklahoma, would have to lose one more of their final two games. They play at Texas Tech and then at home against Baylor. All Oklahoma State needs to do is win out, beating Iowa State, Kansas State and Kansas.

That puts the Horned Frogs at three losses and the Sooners and Cowboys each at two losses and in the Championship Game. If the Pokes won they’d have a win over Oklahoma and Iowa State as the marquee wins on their resume – not as good as Auburn’s wins – leaving the Big 12 out of the College Football Playoff again.