UCF Football: Preview, prediction, live steam vs. Memphis in AAC title game

Undefeated UCF already beat Memphis once this season. What will transpire when they meet again in Orlando for the American Athletic Conference championship?

After Boise State lost in Week 13 to Fresno State, it eliminated the last possible threat to the American Athletic Conference winner’s chance of snagging the Group of Five spot in a New Year’s Six bowl game. But could Memphis actually win this time around when it makes a second trip to Orlando this season?

The first time they faced UCF, the Tigers fell hard. Memphis crumbled for their only loss of the regular season against the Knights back in Week 5. Riley Ferguson threw for 321 yards, but the Tigers gunslinger also tossed three interceptions and was outplayed by UCF’s Heisman dark-horse candidate McKenzie Milton.

After finishing the regular season with a perfect 11-0 record, UCF earned the right to host the AAC West champion Tigers in a rematch of their late September showdown. Without a shot at breaking through to the College Football Playoff, and with head coach Scott Frost rumored to be entertaining offers to coach at bigger schools around the country, will the Knights have the motivation and the focus to pull off another big win over Memphis?

We have seen mid-major teams come into conference championship games and lose focus when a major bowl berth was within reach. Could it happen to the Knights this year as they try to remain one of two undefeated FBS teams left standing?

Here’s how to Saturday’s AAC title game between UCF and Memphis:

Date: Saturday, Dec. 2
Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
Location: Orlando, Fla.
Venue: Spectrum Stadium
TV: ABC
Live Stream: WatchESPN

Keys to Victory

For UCF, it all comes down to avoiding distractions and focusing on the task at hand. When they knocked off Memphis 40-13 back in late September, they did so thanks to a measured performance by McKenzie Milton and a standout day from running back Adrian Killins Jr. Milton should have another solid performance, but they need Killins to get back to midseason form after fading in November.

For Memphis, it all comes down to whether Ferguson can have a more efficient performance in December than he did in September at the same venue. The Tigers’ return to Spectrum Stadium for the AAC championship game needs to end with far fewer turnovers if they are going to have a chance of pulling off the upset.

UCF leads the country in turnover margin, ranking in the top five in terms of both protecting the football and stealing it away from opponents. Memphis is only a few spots behind. But both teams are also prone to seeing plenty of penalty flags. The team that can play disciplined football by winning the turnover battle and limiting its infractions will set itself up to win on Saturday afternoon.

Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of Sportsbook Review

Point Spread: UCF -7
Over/Under: 84.5

Prediction

This should be a high-scoring affair all around. UCF will have a hard time containing Riley Ferguson and a high-flying Memphis offense as well as they did back in September. This game could feature the most penalty flags of any conference championship this weekend, but turnovers will be hard to come by for two ballhawking defenses.

This time around, it will all come down to which quarterback plays better. And on a day when McKenzie Milton is gunning to earn a trip to Manhattan for the Heisman ceremony, Ferguson will ultimately outshine him on the Knights’ home turf.

Look for Memphis to pull out a big lead in the first half as UCF comes out listless and distracted. Milton will lead a furious comeback, and the Knights will take a narrow lead in the fourth quarter. The over/under of 84.5 almost seems artificially low for these two squads.

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Bet the over, but look for Memphis to cover the spread. UCF should remain undefeated, but this game will probably be decided by a field goal or less.

Final Score: UCF 52, Memphis 49