Raycom Media Camellia Bowl 2017 preview, prediction, live stream

Middle Tennessee was one of the lucky last few into a bowl. They face an Arkansas State team that finished a game back in the Sun Belt in the Camellia Bowl.

With more teams eligible to play in bowl games than there were invitations to hand out, three 6-6 squads were forced to sit home for the holidays. Middle Tennessee managed to score one of the last few berths, landing a spot opposite Arkansas State in the Camellia Bowl.

Middle Tennessee beat Old Dominion 41-10 on Thanksgiving weekend to reach bowl eligibility. The Blue Raiders completed a run with wins in three of their last four games, and that was enough to get the nod ahead of fellow Conference USA squad UTSA. They have an exciting offense, when everyone is healthy and working to full potential.

The Blue Raiders face an Arkansas State team that fields one of the most dangerous defensive front sevens in the nation. Led by redshirt senior defensive end Ja’Von Rolland-Jones, the Red Wolves rank in the top 10 in the FBS in sacks and tackles for loss. A narrow loss to Troy on the final weekend kept Arkansas State from snagging a share of the Sun Belt title.

Both schools are making their first appearance in the fourth-year bowl game. What might transpire in Montgomery when the Blue Raiders meet up with the Red Wolves? Get ready for the evening game on the schedule for the first full Saturday of bowl season.

Here’s how to watch Saturday’s Camellia Bowl between Middle Tennessee and Arkansas State:

Date: Saturday, Dec. 16
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
Location: Montgomery, Ala.
Venue: Cramton Bowl
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: WatchESPN

Keys to Victory

For Middle Tennessee, the biggest question is whether they can keep Brent Stockstill upright. The Blue Raiders need the offensive line to keep Rolland-Jones and the rest of the backfield-partying Red Wolves defense off the quarterback. That line gave up two sacks per game, and will be tested mightily by the Arkansas State defensive front.

They also need a big game from Terelle West, who broke out in the bowl-sealing game against Old Dominion with 26 carries for 170 yards and two touchdowns. The redshirt sophomore more than doubled his career high for a single-game performance in what was just his sixth time seeing action this season after a reserve role in 2016.

For Arkansas State to win, they need to simply keep outscoring their opponents. The Red Wolves did that by an average of nearly 14 points per game this season, despite allowing a middle-of-the-road 24 points per game to opponents. The defense was a bend-or-break group this year, which requires an offense that generates points.

Justice Hansen is 370 yards away from a 4000-yard passing season. He would have to crack a decent Middle Tennessee defense to pull off that feat, as the Blue Raiders secondary allows just 212 yards on average through the air. If he does have a big game, though, it will come one of two ways — by blowout victory or by extended periods.

Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of Sportsbook Review

Point Spread: Arkansas State -3.5
Over/Under: 62.5

Prediction

Here’s guessing this game goes long rather than turning into a blowout. Arkansas State has a boom-or-bust defense that will stop plays behind the line of scrimmage but that will also give up big yards over the top. Stockstill will have a big day passing, West will find some running lanes for another 100-yard day, and Middle Tennessee will prove itself deserving of a bowl invitation.

The game will go to overtime on a last-minute touchdown by the Blue Raiders. They have experience with overtime games, having narrowly lost to Western Kentucky in triple overtime in November. But this time around it won’t be a field goal but rather a two-point conversion that dooms Middle Tennessee.

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Hansen will narrowly miss out on the 4,000-yard mark, but he will still throw for over 300 yards and three scores. So too will Stockstill. Ultimately, the game will come down to the final play. Arkansas State will score a touchdown on its drive of the third overtime and convert its two-point try. Middle Tennessee will reach the endzone but will falter on the final play. Arkansas State’s defense will come up big one last time, and the Red Wolves will head back to Jonesboro with their third straight season with at least eight wins.

Final Score: Arkansas State 50, Middle Tennessee 48 (3OT)