R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl 2017 preview, prediction, live stream

Sun Belt co-champion Troy takes on C-USA West winner North Texas at the Superdome. Here’s how we predict the Trojans will fare against the Mean Green.

One of the biggest upsets of the 2017 season took place back on the last day of September. LSU, ranked at the time and eventually ranked again by the end of the season, fell 24-21 at home against Troy. The Trojans, who would go on to win a share of their second straight Sun Belt crown, surprised the country as they notched the biggest of their 10 regular-season wins.

But two defeats prevented the Trojans from any shot at a New Year’s Six berth, even with their otherwise stellar numbers. They also were forced to share the Sun Belt title with Appalachian State, which also finished 7-1 in league play.

The reward for another strong season is a shot at Conference USA’s second-best squad. North Texas lost by a combined score of 110-48 in its two games against conference champion Florida Atlantic. Their only other two losses came on the road against SMU and Iowa. The Mean Green have a shot at the first 10-win season in school history if they can knock off the Trojans in the New Orleans Bowl.

Here’s how to watch Saturday’s 2017 New Orleans Bowl between Troy and North Texas:

Date: Saturday, Dec. 16
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Location: New Orleans, La.
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: WatchESPN

Keys to Victory

Troy notched a signature victory already this season when they took down LSU in Baton Rouge. They got a huge game from their defense, which generated four Tigers turnovers in Death Valley to spark the upset.

Troy’s two losses, in turn, were the result of turnovers of their own. The Trojans gave up 17 takeaways throughout the 2017 regular season. Seven of those came in defeats to Boise State and South Alabama. When Brandon Silvers controls the ball and Jordan Chunn can churn out yards, things just work for Troy. As long as they manage to keep the ball in the season finale, the favorites should prevail in the New Orleans Bowl.

That means, for North Texas, the key is going to be generating turnovers. In every realistic metric, Troy has the better football team. The secondary needs to break out for the Mean Green and make life miserable for Silvers as he quarterbacks the Trojans. A few turnovers would keep Troy from running up the score early, and the longer North Texas hangs in this one the more likely they are to pull off the upset.

Mason Fine needs a big game passing the ball for North Texas. Jeffrey Wilson and Nic Smith will need to find every running lane available. And the Mean Green need to stay within a single score as long as possible to have a shot.

Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of Sportsbook Review

Point Spread: Troy -6.5
Over/Under: 62

Prediction

This contest pits strength against strength, as a North Texas team ranked No. 20 nationally in scoring takes on a Troy defense ranked No. 11 in points allowed. The Trojans should have little trouble clamping down on Jeffrey Wilson on the ground, though they could get burned a few times by a deep receiving corps.

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Ultimately, though, the Sun Belt co-champs have too much firepower for a veteran quarterback like Brandon Silvers. Look for the game to stay close around halftime, and for the Trojans to pull away decisively in after the intermission. Take the points and sweat out the over in this one, because reaching the total points could come down to whether the Mean Green get a garbage-time touchdown to cover.

Final Score: Troy 44, North Texas 21