Armed Forces Bowl 2017 Preview, Prediction: San Diego State vs. Army

Two strong mid-major squads square off in Fort Worth. Here’s how things will shake out in this year’s Armed Forces Bowl between Army and San Diego State.

The Armed Forces Bowl is well into its second decade of operation now, and this year it gets to host its third service academy in the past three years. Army will try to do what neither Air Force in 2015 nor Navy in 2016 could do. The last service academy to win in Fort Worth was Navy, which won the 2013 edition over Middle Tennessee.

This time around, a nine-win Army team comes to the home of TCU football for the first time since 2010. The Black Knights won their only previous appearance in the Armed Forces Bowl, and they will be gunning to keep a perfect record in the game.

They will face a San Diego State squad that failed to win a third straight Mountain West title but still finished the regular season with 10 wins. The Aztecs feature perhaps the most electric all-purpose player in the country in Rashaad Penny, and they will be gunning for a third straight postseason victory.

What might transpire between the Black Knights and the Aztecs on Saturday afternoon in Texas? Here’s how to watch Saturday’s Armed Forces Bowl between Army and San Diego State:

Date: Saturday, Dec. 23
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Fort Worth, Texas
Venue: Amon G. Carter Stadium
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: WatchESPN

Keys to Victory

San Diego State gets heavy press thanks to their otherworldly tailback. But the Aztecs have been successful in the recent past as much because of their stout defense as their backfield. That defense is among the top 10 rushing defenses in the country, and they will need to live up to that billing against the most productive rushing attack in the country.

If they can close down the Black Knights and their triple-option attack, San Diego State will then turn toward its offense. Army will get a heavy dose of Rashaad Penny, and he will need to make the most of the opportunities for the Aztecs to win.

For Army, it all comes down to two things. First, can they stop Penny on the ground? If San Diego State is forced to rely on the arm of Christian Chapman, they become a much more ordinary squad. Army’s front seven has not been that impressive in 2017, though, and they will need to perform above their previous best to have a shot.

They will also need Ahmad Bradshaw to come through. The quarterback rarely throws the ball, but he has become a great manipulator of defenses with his fakes and his ability to tuck and run for big gains.

Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of Sportsbook Review

Point Spread: San Diego State -6.5
Over/Under: 46

Prediction

Army is going to beat the spread, but they will have a much harder time actually shutting down San Diego State enough to claim an outright victory. Because Bradshaw is such a slight threat to beat them through the air, the Aztecs will tee off on the Black Knights backfield and rack up at least 10 tackles for loss.

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Still, turnovers will hurt the Aztecs and keep them from really opening up the scoreline. Army will hang in there for the whole game, with a timely San Diego State interception sealing the deal. For the third straight year, a service academy will lose the Armed Forces Bowl.

Final Score: San Diego State 31, Army 27