San Diego State vs. Army: 5 bold predictions for Armed Forces Bowl

5. San Diego State won’t cover, and it will be a low-scoring affair

All that said, San Diego State is still going to have a hard time covering. Remember how Christian Chapman is going to throw a few interceptions in the red zone? That alone should prevent at least 14 points from going on the scoreboard, and the Aztecs could leave a few more points on the field as veterans cycle out later in the game and new talent comes in to get game-pace conditioning ahead of the offseason.

Army and San Diego State average around 60 combined points a game, making 44.5 total points an attractive bet for the over. But they also field defenses that allow just 38 combined points per game. They could ultimately prove the stars on Saturday as both teams struggle to move the ball on what could be a waterlogged natural-grass field.

That is going to prove an issue for both teams. After a few gaffes, Chapman will be relegated pretty much exclusively to handing the ball off to Penny to close out the Armed Forces Bowl. That will become quickly apparent to the Black Knights, who will have as easy a time shutting down the run as the Aztecs could have against Army’s ground game.

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Look for this game to end below 40 points, with San Diego State trying and failing to cover the point spread of 6.5 points. Look for something in the neighborhood of 19-16 as this becomes a kicking affair and the touchdowns are mostly left to special teams and maybe a defensive score on an interception return.