Houston Football: 2017 Hawaii Bowl preview vs Fresno State

Though they failed to win their respective conferences, Houston football and Fresno State each had solid seasons. How will things shape up in the Hawaii Bowl?

Normally, a postseason showdown between a pair of four-loss Group of Five teams wouldn’t tip the scales much for casual fans. But there is plenty of reason to tune into this year’s Hawaii Bowl. This year, the annual Christmas Eve contest features a Fresno State team that nearly won the Mountain West against a Houston team that finished behind only Memphis in the AAC West.

Houston managed to get back to the postseason in its first year of life after Tom Herman. Under new head coach Major Applewhite, the Cougars were forced to deal with adversity from the outset. They overcame a delayed start to the season after Hurricane Harvey canceled their opener against UTSA to go 7-4 in 2017.

Fresno State, meanwhile, was one of the revelations of this season. With Oregon State transfer Marcus McMaryion quarterbacking the Bulldogs, they won the MWC West ahead of San Diego State and played Boise State for the conference title. It was a remarkable turnaround from a 1-11 campaign in 2016. The rapid success of Fresno State illustrates the importance of coaching, as new leader Jeff Tedford got the Bulldogs into shape quickly.

These two teams have never previously met on the football field. They get an exotic location to finally square off against one another. Here’s how to watch the Hawaii Bowl on Christmas Eve between Houston and Fresno State:

Date: Sunday, Dec. 24
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Venue: Aloha Stadium
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: WatchESPN

Keys to Victory

Houston enters the Hawaii Bowl as a nominal favorite, but they will need to get consistent pressure on Marcus McMaryion to have a shot on Sunday evening. Fresno State is ranked second nationally in sacks allowed in third in the FBS in terms of tackles for loss suffered. If McMaryion has time to find open receivers, he will be able to take advantage of a weak secondary.

That puts pressure on players like Ed Oliver to perform up to their full potential. The sophomore was as good as he was in 2016, racking up 5.5 sacks and a pair of forced fumbles. He will need to open up space in the middle to let teammates breach the trenches.

For Fresno State to prevail, they need to get McMaryion into an early rhythm with timing throws against a hungry Houston defense. The Bulldogs have averaged only 26.7 points per game, so they will also need their defense to come up big against the Cougars.

Fresno State also needs some semblance of balance on offense. True freshman running back Jordan Mims could have a breakout day in the backfield if the Bulldogs are running on all cylinders. Watch out for the young star on Sunday.

Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of Sportsbook Review

Point Spread: Houston -2.5
Over/Under: 49

Prediction

Houston is favored by less than a field goal in the Hawaii Bowl. Both teams will showcase solid defenses, making it harder for both teams to put up a lot of points. But while the Cougars have the sharps on their side, the reality is that Fresno State is probably the better team in 2017.

Next: SMQ: The FBS postseason and the history of bowl games

The spread won’t matter, because the Bulldogs will win outright (and by a wider margin than Houston was offering in terms of the point spread). Look for McMaryion to throw for three touchdowns, including a late score in the fourth quarter that puts Fresno State ahead for good.

Final Score: Fresno State 28, Houston 23