UCLA Football: Cactus Bowl preview, prediction vs. Kansas State

The talk leading up to the 2017 Cactus Bowl has centered on Josh Rosen’s status for the game. Let’s look at the matchup between UCLA and Kansas State.

Founded in 1989 as the Copper Bowl, the Cactus Bowl has shuffled to various sites around Arizona over the decades. It was played at Arizona Stadium in Tucson for its first decade of existence. In 2000, the game moved away from the home of the Wildcats and into what was then known as Bank One Ballpark in Phoenix.

The move coincided with the shift from the Copper Bowl to the Insight Bowl. But that game also outgrew a baseball venue. After the Fiesta Bowl moved to University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, the Insight Bowl took its place at Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe. After Insight Enterprises ended 15 years of sponsorship in 2011, the game was renamed the Cactus Bowl.

What will Josh Rosen do?

This season, the talk about the Cactus Bowl has focused on Josh Rosen and the will-he-or-won’t-he discussions around whether he will play in the Boxing Day matchup. Rosen suffered two concussions in the regular season, the latter coming in the win over California on Thanksgiving weekend. That showdown was a winner-goes-bowling affair, and the Bruins turned to freshman quarterback Devon Modster to hold on to victory.

UCLA squeaked into the postseason with that survival against the Golden Bears. Meanwhile Kansas State finished just over .500 at 7-5 in the standings, in a four-way tie for fourth in the Big 12 standings. The Wildcats started 3-1, then lost three straight in October. Kansas State closed out the regular season with four wins in their last five to get into a bowl game.

These aren’t the top Power Five teams in the country. They are still two teams on a hot streak. Bill Snyder’s crew will be looking for revenge against the Bruins. Three years ago, UCLA pulled out a come-from-behind victory over Kansas State in the Alamo Bowl.

Here’s how to watch the Boxing Day showdown between UCLA and Kansas State in the Cactus Bowl:

Date: Tuesday, Dec. 26
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
Location: Phoenix, Ariz.
Venue: Chase Field
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: WatchESPN

Keys to Victory

UCLA would obviously be in much better shape if Josh Rosen can suit up for the Cactus Bowl than if he is sidelined. While other players have sat out bowl games to protect themselves ahead of the 2018 NFL Draft, Rosen has expressed a desire to play in Phoenix. If he gets the medical clearance, Rosen has said he will be on the field at Chase Field.

Whether Rosen is able to play, UCLA will also need a much stronger showing from its defense than it got for most of the 2017 season. The Bruins ranked among the bottom dozen defenses nationally, allowing nearly 37 points and 490 yards per game. They struggled especially against the run, giving up more than 280 yards per game on the ground.

Kansas State will need to exploit that weak UCLA front seven to snatch away victory. The Wildcats are favored by just less than a touchdown a few days before the game, largely thanks to that Bruins defense and the speculation that Rosen will sit.

Whether Rosen or backup Devon Modster play against the Wildcats, though, Kansas State will need to shore up its issues against the pass. Snyder’s secondary is giving up 310 yards per game through the air, ranking 128th out of 129 FBS schools. Modster has the tools to gash K-State through the air, and the Wildcats cannot get comfortable given their own deficiencies in the defensive backfield.

Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of Sportsbook Review

Point Spread: Kansas State -6.5
Over/Under: 59.5

Prediction

Rosen is probably going to sit out the game. It won’t matter, as Kansas State’s secondary just doesn’t have the tools to hold off whichever quarterback starts for the Bruins. This is the last game with Jedd Fisch as interim coach, and he will bridge the Jim Mora and Chip Kelly eras with a bowl victory for UCLA.

Look for freshman quarterback Devon Modster to throw for 300 yards and four touchdowns in his first career start. Coming on the heels of his relief work against Cal, Modster will assert his claim to the starting role in 2018 and beyond. Of course, that will all depend on whether Rosen elects to return to the college game, something he hasn’t entirely ruled out yet.

Next: SMQ: Are we really seeing more bowl blowouts in 2017?

Kansas State will take an early lead into halftime. But just as UCLA’s season began with a historic comeback win it will also end with another comeback. Both teams will end their 2017 campaigns at 7-6 in the overall standings after the Bruins prevail in the desert.

Final Score: UCLA 45, Kansas State 41