Iowa State Football: Preview, prediction vs. Memphis in Liberty Bowl

Iowa State heads to the Liberty Bowl for its first bowl game in five years. The Cyclones square off against the hometown Memphis Tigers.

Iowa State broke out of its recent funk and had a respectable 2017 season. Despite losing several quarterbacks throughout the year, the Cyclones managed to stay in the Big 12 race for much of the season. A November swoon had Iowa State finish up the regular season at 7-5. Win or lose, the Cyclones are guaranteed to finish with their first winning season since 2009.

Winning might be a tough proposition, as Matt Campbell’s team faces one of the hottest Group of Five teams in the country. Memphis took UCF to overtime in the American Athletic Conference championship, or else they might be playing in a New Year’s Six game. Memphis also managed to hold on to Mike Norvell, who inked a five-year extension worth $13 million with the Tigers.

It has been 17 years since Iowa State won eight or more games in a season. Memphis has never won 11 games in a season in the program’s history. One of these statements will cease to be true after Saturday. Here’s how to watch the Saturday showdown between Iowa State and Memphis in the Liberty Bowl:

Date: Saturday, Dec. 30
Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
Location: Memphis, Tenn.
Venue: Liberty Bowl Stadium
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: WatchESPN

Keys to Victory

Riley Ferguson has been the catalyst for the Memphis offense all season, and that won’t change in his final game for the Tigers. The two-year starter is just 29 yards away from a 4000-yard passing season, and he could easily get that on the opening drive. Ferguson could have a 400-yard day for the Tigers against an Iowa State team ranked in the bottom third nationally in passing defense.

When they don’t have the ball, Memphis will need at least some semblance of defense on their home turf when they face Iowa State. The Tigers allowed 33 points per game this season, and they could find themselves trapped in a shootout against the Cyclones if they are not careful.

For Iowa State, a shootout would be the last thing they desire. The Cyclones were 2-4 in one-score games, and 5-1 when the margin was 10 points or greater. Campbell’s offense will want to score early and build up a quick lead. They will need to continue protecting the football to do so.

They will also rely on their defense to get them out of a few jams. The secondary could stand to snatch an interception or two from Ferguson, who is prone to try to force balls into tight windows. Iowa State has the misfortune of playing a bowl opponent on its home turf, but they need to force that out of their heads and focus on the action between the white lines of the gridiron.

Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of Sportsbook Review

Point Spread: Memphis -3.5
Over/Under: 66

Prediction

Memphis already made one Power Five statement this season against UCLA in the Liberty Bowl. They have a good chance to go 2-0 against major-conference competition in 2017 when the Cyclones come south to the land of blues and barbecue.

Look for Ferguson to get into an early rhythm, just as he did against UCF in the conference championship. He could complete his first dozen or more passes before the first incompletion, and by that point things might already be out of hand for the Big 12 visitors. Rather than jumping out to their own early lead, Iowa State will find itself in an insurmountable hole by halftime.

Next: SMQ: Are we really seeing more bowl blowouts in 2017?

This season seems destined to conclude with several Group of Five teams in the final Top 25 rankings after the bowls have concluded. Memphis will do its part to stay ranked at the end of the postseason, running away with a 20-point win over the Cyclones.

Final Score: Memphis 41, Iowa State 21