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College Football SMQ: The impact of recruiting for national championship teams

By Zach Bigalke

(Photo by Mike Zarrilli/Getty Images)
(Photo by Mike Zarrilli/Getty Images) /
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(Photo by Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images)
(Photo by Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images) /

The best and worst national championship games by recruiting averages

We need to talk for a moment about that 2011 BCS National Championship Game pitting Auburn and Oregon. In terms of the quality of its recruits, the Ducks brought the weakest roster of any national championship participant to University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale. The Tigers were just behind, the only other team in a title game to fall below the magical 88-point threshold that marks all other title contenders.

In terms of the players it put on the field in an ever-changing variety of uniform combinations, Oregon’s 2010 roster won despite the average rank of its recruits. The Ducks that year were not that far removed from the quality of team Boise State or UCF currently bring to the table. In Chip Kelly‘s offense, though, those undervalued prospects caught lightning in a bottle and made it all the way to Arizona.

There they took on Gene Chizik’s Auburn squad that went 14-0 and swept through its SEC slate. The Tigers, though, looked more like a Pac-12 or Big 12 squad than a traditional SEC outfit. Auburn won despite its defense rather than because of that unit. The SEC champions managed to win all six of its 12 regular-season games that fell within a single score, getting a huge dose of luck all throughout the year.

In the table below, the right column is the combined average of the two title game participants for each season between 2006 and 2017:

Championship games ranked by five-year recruiting averages

R-S S/R-J J/R-So So/R-F F TOTAL COMB
2017 Alabama 93.25 93.65 93.73 92.54 93.76 93.39
2017 Georgia 88.51 90.97 89.74 90.77 92.27 90.37 183.75
2016 Clemson 89.03 88.46 88.69 89.12 90.30 89.07
2016 Alabama 93.40 93.25 93.65 93.73 92.54 93.33 182.40
2012 Alabama 91.20 91.39 89.95 92.19 93.40 91.55
2012 Notre Dame 93.01 88.46 88.44 89.96 91.21 90.21 181.76
2015 Alabama 92.19 93.40 93.25 93.65 93.73 93.21
2015 Clemson 87.17 89.03 88.46 88.69 89.12 88.46 181.66
2011 Alabama 87.81 91.20 91.39 89.95 92.19 90.42
2011 LSU 91.01 89.58 91.51 89.86 90.23 90.44 180.87
2006 Florida 86.15 89.96 89.69 88.90 90.58 88.97
2006 Ohio State 89.70 95.99 95.71 88.78 83.99 91.14 180.11
2007 LSU 89.84 90.30 90.82 89.75 91.01 90.32
2007 Ohio State 95.99 95.71 88.78 83.99 79.66 89.43 179.75
2009 Alabama 84.77 87.49 87.81 91.20 91.39 88.32
2009 Texas 89.71 91.60 91.74 91.57 92.13 91.30 179.62
2008 Florida 89.69 88.90 90.58 89.45 89.31 89.58
2008 Oklahoma 91.11 90.60 89.26 86.53 91.63 89.85 179.43
2013 Florida State 89.94 89.20 90.48 92.93 89.16 90.32
2013 Auburn 86.60 88.09 89.58 90.83 89.12 88.76 179.08
2014 Ohio State 87.57 90.25 91.47 93.14 90.59 90.51
2014 Oregon 87.74 89.24 88.51 87.73 87.87 88.24 178.76
2010 Auburn 86.59 86.88 84.94 86.60 88.09 86.58
2010 Oregon 80.53 86.09 85.08 84.51 87.74 84.65 171.23

As you can see, Oregon was also part of the second-lowest rated pair of teams to compete for a national championship. In both cases the Ducks had some of the worst possible recruiting variances between their rosters and their opponents’ teams.

In general, the overall quality of participants in championship games has trended upward in recent years. That is due to several reasons.

One is the introduction of the College Football Playoff, which puts four teams into a semifinal and allows for the initial weeding out of pretenders. It is also thanks in no small part to the juggernaut that Nick Saban has built in Tuscaloosa.

As the chart below shows, Alabama’s last two national champion squads had the greatest differentials in terms of how their roster compared to their respective opponents.

Five-year recruiting average variance between title winners and losers

R-S S/R-J J/R-So So/R-F F TOTAL VAR
2015 Alabama 92.19 93.40 93.25 93.65 93.73 93.21 4.75
2015 Clemson 87.17 89.03 88.46 88.69 89.12 88.46
2017 Alabama 93.25 93.65 93.73 92.54 93.76 93.39 3.02
2017 Georgia 88.51 90.97 89.74 90.77 92.27 90.37
2014 Ohio State 87.57 90.25 91.47 93.14 90.59 90.51 2.27
2014 Oregon 87.74 89.24 88.51 87.73 87.87 88.24
2010 Auburn 86.59 86.88 84.94 86.60 88.09 86.58 1.94
2010 Oregon 80.53 86.09 85.08 84.51 87.74 84.65
2013 Florida State 89.94 89.20 90.48 92.93 89.16 90.32 1.56
2013 Auburn 86.60 88.09 89.58 90.83 89.12 88.76
2012 Alabama 91.20 91.39 89.95 92.19 93.40 91.55 1.34
2012 Notre Dame 93.01 88.46 88.44 89.96 91.21 90.21
2007 LSU 89.84 90.30 90.82 89.75 91.01 90.32 0.89
2007 Ohio State 95.99 95.71 88.78 83.99 79.66 89.43
2011 Alabama 87.81 91.20 91.39 89.95 92.19 90.42 -0.02
2011 LSU 91.01 89.58 91.51 89.86 90.23 90.44
2008 Florida 89.69 88.90 90.58 89.45 89.31 89.58 -0.26
2008 Oklahoma 91.11 90.60 89.26 86.53 91.63 89.85
2006 Florida 86.15 89.96 89.69 88.90 90.58 88.97 -2.17
2006 Ohio State 89.70 95.99 95.71 88.78 83.99 91.14
2009 Alabama 84.77 87.49 87.81 91.20 91.39 88.32 -2.97
2009 Texas 89.71 91.60 91.74 91.57 92.13 91.30
2016 Clemson 89.03 88.46 88.69 89.12 90.30 89.07 -4.26
2016 Alabama 93.40 93.25 93.65 93.73 92.54 93.33

Alabama is right there in every case, as might be expected from a team that was rejuvenated under Nick Saban. In addition to having the highest variance, they also suffered the worst loss as a favorite in terms of relative roster quality.

The controversial 2012 BCS title game that pitted SEC West rivals Alabama and LSU in a rematch was the most even game in terms of roster balance. LSU’s roster on average ranked only 0.02 points higher than the Tide team that took them down.

What can we learn from these numbers moving forward?

Keep reading as we conclude this week’s SMQ with a look at the current early odds for 2018-2019 national title hopefuls. Using the same methodology, we will assess which teams might be the best and worst bets among the teams listed at 100/1 or better.

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