Group of Five: UCF, Boise State headline 2018 preseason power rankings

UCF and Boise State are ranked in both major polls. The College Football Playoff could have a tough time determining the top Group of Five team in 2018.

When the Coaches Poll was released back on August 2, both Boise State and UCF found themselves slotted into the Top 25. The Broncos were positioned just ahead of the Knights, last year’s Group of Five representative in the New Year’s Six, at No. 22 and No. 23 respectively.

It wasn’t surprising, then, when the AP Top 25 had both teams in their rankings as well. The AP voters put UCF ahead of Boise State, and the Knights will bring the nation’s longest winning streak into the new year.

These are hardly the only two teams with a legitimate shot of challenging for that elusive and lucrative bid into one of the major bowl games. Since 2014, the College Football Playoff has guaranteed the top Group of Five champion a spot in one of the half-dozen bowl games designated as part of the Playoff rotation.

Each week over the course of the season, we will take time every Wednesday to reassess the Group of Five field and determine where everyone sits in the pecking order. As long as the American Athletic Conference and Mountain West favorites continue winning, they will almost certainly jostle with one another for the top spot.

But there are contenders ready to swoop in. Let’s look at the top 10 before finishing up with a look at the Group of Five games against Power Five opponents in Week 1.

Houston is a few years removed from its most recent appearance in a major bowl game. Three years ago, the Cougars broke through in Tom Herman’s first season at the helm. An inexplicable loss at a UConn team that was 5-5 at the time prevented the Cougars from challenging the College Football Playoff head-on. Nevertheless, the 12-1 AAC champions earned the Peach Bowl bid and toppled Florida State 38-24 to cap a strong season.

The following year, it seemed all the pieces were in place to really challenge the College Football Playoff selectors. Houston knocked off Oklahoma by 10 points to start the year. They climbed all the way to No. 6 in the polls. Then Navy toppled the Cougars in Annapolis, ending their dream of a top-four spot. Even though they took down Louisville and Heisman winner Lamar Jackson later that season, it wasn’t enough to climb back up after losing two more conference games.

Last year the wheels didn’t completely come off, but the transition from Herman to Major Applewhite was sometimes rocky. Houston’s opener against UTSA was canceled due to Hurricane Harvey. Though they took down Arizona in the new season opener, the Cougars lost to Texas Tech and again failed to claim the AAC West title.

This year the Cougars will be a dark-horse in the division. They get another chance against both Arizona and Texas Tech to make statements against Power Five opponents. Memphis and Navy still look in the division, but with Ed Oliver back for his senior year the Cougars have a legitimate shot to once again claim the title of top Group of Five team in the country.

From 2010 through 2014, Northern Illinois was one of the preeminent mid-majors at the tail end of the BCS era. The Huskies broke through in 2012 as the first MAC team to reach a BCS game, and they were also the first smaller school to bust into the BCS despite a regular-season loss. In that half-decade stretch, NIU won 11 or more games in every season. And from 2010 through 2015, the Huskies played for the MAC title every year and won three of the six chances.

Over the past three years, though, Northern Illinois have regressed back to the middle of the pack. That 2015 MAC title game appearance came after a regular season where the Huskies lost four games. NIU went on to lose to Bowling Green in Detroit and then to Boise State in the Poinsettia Bowl. 2016 marked the first time Northern Illinois missed out on a bowl game since Joe Novak’s final season as coach in 2007.

Northern Illinois rebounded in 2017, taking down Nebraska en route to another eight-win season. The Huskies bring back eight starters on offense, including Marcus Childers at quarterback. Jordan Huff is departed from the backfield, and a pair of pass-catching threats are gone as well in tight end Shane Wimman and receiver Christian Blake.

But if they can have better luck with health at the quarterback position, the offense should be better in 2018 than the 29 points and 380 yards per game they mustered in 2017. They will need to lift themselves up, because NIU’s defense carried the team in 2017 and they lose four starters from last year’s group. But if Northern Illinois can take down Iowa and Utah to start the season, they will vault up the Group of Five power rankings.

The big question entering the season for San Diego State is whether they can luck into a third straight sublime 2000-yard rusher in the backfield. When Donnel Pumphrey graduated as the NCAA’s all-time leading rusher in 2016, it raised question marks about whether the two-time Mountain West champion would remain relevant.

The Aztecs failed to win the MWC crown for a third straight year, but Rashaad Penny proved himself to be even more electric than his predecessor. Finishing 2017 as one of the top five backs in the country, Penny earned himself a first-round selection in the 2018 NFL Draft. That opens the door for Juwan Washington to get his own chance at a star turn this season.

Washington has been a solid performer in relief throughout his career, and with quarterback Christian Chapman back as well the Aztecs should be fine on offense. Receiver Micah Holder and tight end David Wells are gone, but the bigger losses are on defense. A group that finished among the top 20 defenses in the FBS last year loses five starters, and maintaining that level of dominance could prove tough with a slew of new personnel.

San Diego State starts the year with a trip north, hoping to take down Stanford for a second year in a row. If the Aztecs beat the Cardinal, they also take on Arizona State in another Pac-12 showdown. With Boise State on the road this year as well, the Aztecs have a strong enough schedule that they would be in the Group of Five mix if they keep winning.

South Florida entered 2017 as the Group of Five darling. With Quinton Flowers back in Tampa for a final season, the Bulls were the odds-on favorite to win the American Athletic Conference and represent the Group of Five in a New Year’s Six bowl. And it looked on track to happen until Houston came to Raymond James Stadium and toppled the Bulls in late October.

That prevented a perfect season for USF, but they still had a shot at the AAC title when they faced UCF on Thanksgiving weekend. The War on I-4 was an instant classic last year, as the Bulls and Knights traded punches in a 49-42 thriller ultimately won by the hosts in Orlando. For the second time in three years, South Florida finished with 10 or more wins but failed to even get a chance to play for the conference crown.

This year, Flowers is gone but hope remains high for USF. Redshirt junior Brett Kean will get the first shot at replacing the three-year starter at quarterback. In total, five starters are gone on offense and the Bulls have to replace six starters on defense. That includes middle linebacker Auggie Sanchez, who was the team’s best defensive player for the past few years.

2018 offers a pair of Power Five statement opportunities, with Georgia Tech coming to Tampa and the Bulls traveling to Illinois. Both are winnable contests, even with the attrition on the USF roster. If the Bulls win both, they will be right back in the Group of Five discussion once again.

Troy made waves last year when they toppled LSU in Death Valley. But it was an earlier game that made a bigger difference for the Trojans in 2018. The season opener at Boise State was a close contest, but one that the Trojans ultimately lost. That proved to be one of just two losses for the Sun Belt champions in 2017, as they won 11 games by the end of the year.

On one hand, the Trojans are dealing with some significant losses after half of last year’s starters are no longer with the team. That includes quarterback Brandon Silvers, who ranked in the top 30 nationally in passing yards and completion rate. It also includes Jordan Chunn, a multi-year starter in the backfield who is now trying to break through as an undrafted free agent signing of the Dallas Cowboys.

The offense lost five starters total. The defense fared even worse, with six of last season’s first unit gone from Troy. A pair of redshirt seniors, cornerback Blace Brown and linebacker Hunter Reese, will lead the team into the new year hoping to maintain the same level of quality as the unit managed last season.

Troy hosts Boise State this year in their home opener, looking to exact some payback against the Broncos. Their big Power Five opportunity this year comes against Scott Frost’s first Nebraska squad, which the Trojans will play on the road in mid-September. It will always be an uphill battle for a Sun Belt squad to finish ahead of the AAC or MWC champion, but this Troy team could do it after opening eyes last season.

Fresno State took down rival Boise State once last season, defeating the Broncos in the Battle for the Milk Can. But the Bulldogs couldn’t pull off the feat two weeks in a row, as Boise State won the return match the following week on the Smurf Turf to claim the Mountain West title. The Bulldogs rebounded with a win over Houston in the Hawaii Bowl to complete the school’s first 10-win season since Derek Carr left for the NFL.

There were several reasons for Fresno State’s turnaround in 2017. Jeff Tedford returned to the sidelines after five years away from coaching. He immediately helped stabilize a team that had drifted to irrelevance under Tim DeRuyter. A large reason for that was the presence of Oregon State transfer Marcus McMaryion at quarterback. Both men return in 2018 for the Bulldogs and are ready for another attempt at the school’s first conference title since 2013.

Fresno State gets eight starters back on both sides of the ball, including three starters to an offensive line that ranked third nationally in sacks allowed last year. The defensive line is a bit thinner, with defensive tackle Malik Forrester and defensive end Tobenna Okeke no longer in Fresno. A team that gave up just 320 yards and 18 points per game could see those numbers climb slightly, but the Bulldogs should still field one of the top 30 defenses in the FBS.

Under Pat Hill in the early 21st century, Fresno State made a name for itself as a tough mid-major willing to play any opponent at any venue. This year the Bulldogs take on both Minnesota and UCLA on the road, giving them two chances to make statements against Power Five opponents. If they win both, Fresno State will consolidate its position as a Group of Five contender.

Last year, only a pair of losses against UCF separated Memphis from a shot at finishing as the top Group of Five team in the country. The Tigers knocked off UCLA at home in a wild shootout between senior quarterbacks Riley Ferguson and Josh Rosen. Ferguson threw for 398 yards and six touchdowns against the Bruins defense.

Ferguson is gone now, though, leaving the Tigers offense to redshirt sophomore David Moore. Memphis has dealt with losing a quarterback before, as Ferguson took over for Paxton Lynch under center for the Tigers. Moore has a pair of steady running backs in Tony Pollard and Patrick Taylor Jr. to help take some heat off the passing game. As he develops, Moore should keep Memphis in AAC West contention.

What will really be critical to whether Memphis fails or succeeds in the AAC race is whether or not the defense can improve. Last year the Tigers gave up an average of more than 465 yards and 32 points per game. Often bailed out by a high-scoring offense, Memphis won five of the seven games in which the defense gave up 30 or more points. They can’t count on that happening again this year.

Last year only UCF proved capable of outscoring the Tigers in a shootout. This year, Memphis is banking on experience to remain relevant in the Group of Five battle for the automatic New Year’s Six invitation. An October visit to Missouri provides an opportunity to take down a Power Five team, and this year UCF has to come to the Liberty Bowl.

Last year, Lane Kiffin generated an eight-win turnaround in Boca Raton on his return to head coaching. Florida Atlantic went from 3-9 in Charlie Partridge’s final season to an 11-3 Conference USA champion in 2017. It was an impressive performance that set the Owls up for a potential run at a New Year’s Six bid in 2018.

A major reason for hope at FAU is due to the return of running back Devin Singletary for his junior season. Last year Singletary led the country with 32 rushing touchdowns. This year, Singletary has the chance to become the first running back in NCAA history to rush for 30 or more touchdowns in two straight seasons. He is also going to push for his first 2000-yard season, a mark he fell 82 yards shy of reaching in 2017.

Kiffin’s teams are renowned for their offensive prowess, naturally, given his history as an offensive coordinator. But the Owls ranked 34th nationally in points allowed in 2017, and the defense returns one of the most veteran defenses in the nation. Other than graduate transfer Jeremiah Taleni, who spent his final year of eligibility on the FAU defensive line last year, every other starter returns.

The Owls are set up to dominate Conference USA once again. Beyond that, they have several statement chances outside of league play. To open the year, Florida Atlantic heads to Oklahoma to take on the reigning Big 12 champions in Norman. They also play UCF in Orlando in a game that will likely decide which Florida school remains in the running for the New Year’s Six bid.

Boise State enters the 2018 season as the top-ranked Group of Five team according to the Coaches Poll. It has been four years since Bryan Harsin’s squad went to the Fiesta Bowl in the first year of the College Football Playoff system. After returning to the top of the Mountain West last year, the Broncos are coming into the new year with big hopes of returning to a major bowl game.

Brett Rypien and Alexander Mattison headline a strong group of returning players on offense. Though receiver Cedrick Wilson and tight ends Jake Roh and Alec Dhaenens are no longer in Boise, the Broncos should still have a productive passing game to go with the ground game. Mattison could be poised for a breakout season as he hopes to become the next Broncos rusher drafted into the NFL.

Few teams bring back more talent on defense than Boise State. Other than first-round NFL Draft pick Leighton Vander Esch, the rest of the starters from 2017 are back for defensive coordinator Andy Avalos. Last year the Broncos ranked 22nd in yards allowed and 38th in points allowed, giving up an average of 333 yards and 23 points per game. Those numbers look poised to drop in 2018 despite the loss of Vander Esch.

The season opens with a Group of Five elimination showdown against Troy, just like it did last year. A mid-September trip to Stillwater to take on Oklahoma State will help determine whether the Broncos are a serious contender for a return to the New Year’s Six in 2018.

Until further notice, UCF remains the top dog in the Group of Five hierarchy entering the new season. The Knights own the longest winning streak in the country at 13 games and counting. Though they no longer have the services of Scott Frost on the sidelines, there is enough returning talent on both sides of the ball to give Knights fans hope for the new season. Under new head coach Josh Heupel, UCF could be even more dynamic on offense than last year’s top-ranked unit.

Heisman hopeful McKenzie Milton is the most efficient quarterback in the country who will be back in 2018. Adrian Killins Jr. and Otis Anderson, the top two running back from the 2017 roster, are back in Orlando this season. Dredrick Snelson is back to lead the receiving corps, and a solid offensive line returns five players with extensive starting experience and adds a pair of transfers to the mix in former Notre Dame guard Parker Boudreaux and junior-college tackle Trevor Elbert.

The defense saw another Griffin brother depart as Shaquem joined his twin Shaquill on the Seattle Seahawks. Chequan Burkett is also gone from the UCF defense. Otherwise, the unit returns pretty much everyone else, making for a veteran group that is poised to improve on last year’s solid-if-unspectacular numbers.

UCF has a few warm-up games before a three-game stretch that will define the season. The Knights play at North Carolina on September 15. Then they return home for showdowns against fellow Group of Five contender Florida Atlantic and another ACC opponent in Pittsburgh. If they are 5-0 coming out of that break, the Knights will be set up to run the table and on a 25-game winning streak entering the AAC championship game.

Group of Five Upset Threats in Week 1

Every week, we will conclude the Group of Five power rankings with a look ahead at the top chances to witness an upset against Power Five competition. This week, 22 different contests pit Group of Five hopefuls against a Power Five opponent. More than one-third of FBS teams will be involved in those contests. These five look like your surest shot to see a statement being made.

Wyoming at Washington State

Wyoming looked incredibly solid in its season opener on the road against New Mexico State. Until the final drive, the Cowboys defense gave up fewer than 100 yards to the Aggies. Craig Bohl’s team seems to have found a solid successor for Josh Allen at quarterback in redshirt freshman Tyler Vander Waal, and Nico Evans gives Wyoming a presence on the ground they were lacking last year. Washington State, meanwhile, will be breaking in a new quarterback and could be ripe for an upset.

Colorado State vs. Colorado (in Denver)

Colorado State was unable to take down Hawaii in their first game of the season, falling 43-34 at home to the Rainbow Warriors. But KJ Carta-Samuels looked great in his first game with the Rams, throwing for 537 yards and five touchdowns on 34-of-50 passing. Against a Colorado team that lost secondary stars Isaiah Olive and Afolabi Laguda, Carta-Samuels could have a huge day in the annual Rocky Mountain Showdown at Mile High Stadium in Denver.

Northern Illinois @ Iowa

Northern Illinois and Iowa have an interesting recent history against one another. In 2012, the Huskies crashed the BCS party despite opening the season with a loss to Iowa at Soldier Field. The following year, NIU took down Iowa 30-27 at Kinnick Stadium. Now the Huskies return to the site of their last win over the Hawkeyes. Last year the Huskies toppled Nebraska in Lincoln, and could earn another Big Ten statement on the road this year.

Florida Atlantic @ Oklahoma

Florida Atlantic has big dreams of crashing the duopoly of Boise State and UCF at the top of the Group of Five power rankings. To make that happen, they need to do what Houston did three years ago and topple Oklahoma in Norman to begin the season. Devin Singletary needs to have a massive game against a Sooners squad that lost nearly half of last year’s defensive production.

Middle Tennessee @ Vanderbilt

An in-state duel features one of the biggest statement opportunities of the young season. Middle Tennessee has lost each of the past three seasons against Vanderbilt, after winning their first three meetings earlier in the 21st century. But the Blue Raiders have a shot to restore their lead in the seventh showdown in the all-time series, especially with a major advantage in returning talent.

See the full list of games featuring Group of Five teams playing Power Five opponents this week below.

Week 1 Group of Five Statement Opportunities vs. Power Five Teams

Stay tuned every Wednesday for our weekly look at the Group of Five hierarchy in the race for a New Year’s Six invitation and break down the biggest statement opportunities of the week.