The AP Top 25 will release its preseason poll on August 20. Here are our final projections of what the poll will look like heading into the 2018 season.
On the Monday before the long kickoff of the 2018 college football season begins with Week 0 action, the AP Top 25 will release its preseason poll. First released in 1936, the AP Poll has been putting out a preseason poll annually since 1950. This year, the AP selected Monday, August 20 as the date for its preseason release.
It provides the last major opportunity for water-cooler talk leading into the season. We’ve taken two previous looks at projecting the AP Top 25 this offseason. The first was a way-too-early look right after the end of the College Football Playoff national championship game after last season concluded. Then we took another look right after spring practices wrapped up around the country.
We already know what the Coaches Poll has to say about the 2018 preseason Top 25. The two polls don’t always align, but most of the teams named by coaches around the country should also make the AP list. Not all will, though. Here is our last look at projecting how this year’s preseason AP Top 25 will look next Monday.
South Carolina was the last team out in the Coaches Poll, coming in as the 26th team in points. The AP voters could have a different opinion, flipping the Gamecocks ahead of Oklahoma State. After all, South Carolina actually has a solid quarterback returning to Columbia while there are still ample questions about the position in Stillwater.
Jake Bentley didn’t necessarily set the world on fire consistently as a sophomore. But his 390-yard performance in defeat at the Birmingham Bowl as a freshman consolidated his place at the top of the depth chart, to the extent that Brandon McIlwain transferred to Cal and chose to sit out a year because the spot was filled. This year, Bentley gets back Deebo Samuels as the crown jewel of a solid receiving corps.
Rico Dowdle also returns at running back, after suffering a fractured fibula against Tennessee last year. AJ Turner and Ty’Son Williams are also back for the Gamecocks after stepping in last year to pick up the slack when Dowdle went down. The defense could be a bit shaky after losing seven of last year’s starting unit. But if this offense can stay healthy, the assemblage of talent will be enough to push the Gamecocks further up the AP Top 25.
LSU is a tough team to gauge this offseason. So much of the talent from last year’s up-and-down squad is gone from last year. The majority of those losses, though, were on a perpetually-underachieving offense that never seemed to add up to the sum of its parts. The 2017 squad spent much of the season in the AP Top 25.
They fell out for two weeks after losing to eventual Sun Belt champion Troy. LSU dropped out of the polls a second time for a single week when they stumbled against eventual College Football Playoff national champion and perpetually SEC West nemesis Alabama. Working in LSU’s favor is the fact that they will be far less depleted on defense. And the Bayou Bengals have succeeded in the past on the strength of stout defenses.
A top-20 defense was betrayed by its offense a few too many times, but the Tigers still had a shot at a 10-win season in 2017 and managed to end the year No. 18 in the AP Top 25. This year should probably feature much more of the same. Expect at least one inexplicable loss, rendering the Tigers afterthoughts in the SEC West battle once again. But another 10-win season is possible in Baton Rouge.
Boise State began the season as the highest-ranked Group of Five team in the country in the Coaches Poll. They will probably flip positions with UCF in the AP Top 25, as pollsters reward the undefeated season put in by the Knights last year. The Broncos will definitely be somewhere in the last few spots of the poll this season.
Brett Rypien returns to quarterback the squad. The loss of receiver Cedrick Wilson and tight ends Jake Roh and Alec Dhaenens could impact the passing game, as Rypien is forced to adjust to new favorite targets. At least he will have a familiar face in the backfield, as Alexander Mattison comes back to tote the rock out of the backfield another season.
The defense will determine just how far the defending Mountain West champions can go in 2018. While losing a player like Leighton Vander Esch is always costly for a smaller school, he is the only major piece of last year’s defense who isn’t back this season. A group that ranked 38th in points allowed last year should improve this year even after Vander Esch headed off to the NFL.
UCF is riding the longest winning streak in the country after finishing 2017 with the only undefeated record in the country. Last year’s top Group of Five team has a chance to keep the winning ways going in 2018. While they finished behind Boise State in the preseason Coaches Poll, the Knights will likely jump over the Broncos in the first release of the AP Top 25.
Scott Frost is no longer patrolling the sidelines, it must be noted. But in Josh Heupel the Knights landed another hot up-and-coming coach who made his name on the offensive side of the ball. The former Heisman winner arrives in Orlando after two years as the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at Missouri. He inherits a great quarterback in McKenzie Milton, who is the most efficient passer returning from last year and could make a dark-horse Heisman run.
Shaquem Griffin and Mike Hughes are no small losses on defense. They highlight a unit that must be rebuilt at all levels in 2018. New defensive coordinator Randy Shannon will need to lean on veterans like Tre Neal, Kyle Gibson, and Pat Jasinski to lead the unit this year. But after finishing the year 52nd in scoring defense and 93rd in yards allowed, the unit only needs to be decent for this year’s offense to keep them piling up wins and in the national running.
West Virginia enters 2018 with perhaps the best returning quarterback/receiver combination in Will Grier and David Sills V. Grier is back from surgery after breaking his the middle finger on his throwing hand early in a loss to Texas in November. Sills is a front-runner for the Biletnikoff Award after nabbing 18 touchdown passes last season.
But they are hardly the only talent back on offense for the Mountaineers. Kennedy McKoy gets his shot in the backfield after spelling Justin Crawford last season. Even as the backup, McKoy matched Crawford with seven rushing touchdowns apiece. With increased carries, the junior could develop into the next West Virginia star in the backfield.
The Mountaineers lost two tackling machines in linebacker Al-Rasheed Benton and cornerback Kyzir White. But seven starters return to the unit, and the Big 12 is always won more with offense than with defense. In a year where things are wide open in the conference, West Virginia might have the tools to stay in the Big 12 race and vault further up the AP Top 25.
Last year, Texas was ranked in the preseason at No. 23 in the AP Top 25 and the Coaches Poll. Then they went on and promptly lost to Maryland 51-41 in the home opener to drop out of the polls in a lackluster 7-6 campaign in Tom Herman‘s first year at the helm. The year before, the Longhorns were unranked in the preseason but vaulted to No. 11 in the AP Top 25 after taking down then-No. 10 Notre Dame. That quickly faded away as Charlie Strong’s final season ended 5-7 without a bowl appearance.
It is natural that powerhouses sometimes enjoy an advantage built into the minds of pollsters. The coaches already put Texas at No. 21 in their poll this year. The AP will probably follow suit, placing the Longhorns somewhere in the low 20s. Sam Ehlinger seems the likeliest candidate to snag the starting role full-time. Either he or Shane Buechele needs to seize the job and lead the team if Texas is going to remain in the AP Top 25 more than a few weeks this season.
The defense needs to rebuild a bit now that Malik Jefferson is now donning a different shade of orange with the Cincinnati Bengals and DeShon Elliott is also in the AFC North with the Baltimore Ravens.. Texas is one of a handful of teams with a decent shot at taking the Big 12 this year if everything falls right. If they beat USC in a marquee non-conference matchup at home in mid-September, we’ll know that Herman has them on the right track.
Dan Mullen has departed to take the Florida job, but hope still runs high in Starkville this season. With a roster stacked with redshirt juniors and seniors, Mississippi State returns 17 of last year’s 22 starters for the 2018 season. While challenging Alabama for the SEC West crown will be tough, the Bulldogs could put themselves in position for a New Year’s Six berth.
Nick Fitzgerald is back at quarterback after his gruesome ankle injury in the Egg Bowl against rival Ole Miss last Thanksgiving. So too is 1100-yard rusher Aeris Williams. The only starters from last year’s offense who are no longer with the team are tackle Martinas Rankin and receiver Gabe Myles. That leaves plenty of pieces in the cupboard for new head coach and former Penn State offensive mastermind Joe Moorhead.
Moorhead also has a strong defense to employ in his first season. Eight starters return to the unit after a year where they ranked 10th in yards allowed and gave up an average of fewer than three touchdowns per game. Look for the Bulldogs to slot in somewhere in the high teens to low 20s when the first AP Top 25 is released on August 20.
Don’t overlook Gary Patterson‘s crew (like we did after spring practices). The Horned Frogs are going to have another high-powered defense as per usual. Though they lose five starters from last year’s squad, TCU still has back around two-thirds of its defensive production. The coaches seem to think this squad has a shot at contending for the Big 12 this year, though. It is likely the AP Top 25 will include them as well after they were rated so highly by the coaches.
But the AP will drop them a few spots from the No. 16 position in the Coaches Poll. That is less because of that defense than due to an offense that lost almost everyone from last year. Gone is Kenny Hill at quarterback, leaving Shawn Robinson as the starter largely by default. Kyle Hicks departed Fort Worth as well, though Darius Anderson is back at running back. The offensive line is depleted, with three of last year’s five starters off to the pros.
With the team starting from near scratch on offense, things could go any number of ways in Fort Worth this season. Gary Patterson will certainly have the defense ready to carry the team as far as they can take it. Then it will rely on a green offense coming together quickly in a conference where offense is king.
The Seminoles cratered last year after their much-hyped opener against Alabama. Once Deondre Francois was injured, it was a battle just to reach .500 in the standings and qualify for a bowl game. Florida State made it to that threshold with James Blackman at quarterback, but Francois is healthy again. That alone will be enough to get the voters salivating as they place Florida State somewhere in the mid-to-high teens in the AP Top 25 this preseason.
He will be playing in a new system, though, as Jimbo Fisher headed off to Texas A&M and the Seminoles poached Willie Taggart away from Oregon. Taggart is quite familiar with the Sunshine State, and should have little trouble getting good players to Tallahassee. This year, however, the cupboards are much fuller on offense than they are on defense. Eight starters return on offense, with tight end Ryan Izzo, receiver Auden Tate, and right tackle Rick Leonard the only players gone.
Defense is where most of the rapid rebuilding needs to happen for Florida State. The Seminoles lost seven starters from last season’s team. Derwin Jones was a first-round pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, while fellow safety Trey Marshall is also gone. Derrick Nnadi‘s loss puts a huge hole in the defensive line, while Josh Sweat‘s departure eliminates a major threat on the edge. This year any collapse will likely be due to the defense underachieving.
Last year, the Hokies missed out on a chance to play in the ACC championship game for a second straight year. All that separated Virginia Tech from that opportunity was a 28-10 loss to the Hurricanes in Miami. Had the Hokies won that game, they and not Miami would have squared off against Clemson. The result there would likely have been the same, but then again Virginia Tech came close a year before against Deshaun Watson and company.
Josh Jackson was nine yards shy of a 3,000-yard season passing the ball as a freshman, and he should improve his accuracy with experience. Jackson isn’t going to break out as a dual-threat quarterback, but he is good in short-yardage situations and scored six rushing touchdowns last year. If healthy, Steven Peoples gives Virginia Tech the best option on the ground. Deshawn McClease, last year’s rushing leader, is also back after taking over following Peoples’s foot injury.
The Hokies lost a top-shelf pair of brothers when linebacker Tremaine Edmunds and safety Terrell Edmunds both went in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft. Justin Fuente‘s crew also lost defensive tackle Tim Settle, linebacker Andrew Motuapuaka, and cornerbacks Greg Stroman and Brandon Facyson. But there is still plenty to build around for a Virginia Tech team that will open 2018 in the mid-teens of the preseason AP Top 25.
Every year it feels like Michigan is poised to finally break out under head coach Jim Harbaugh. Entering his fourth year at the helm of his alma mater, this feels like put-up-or-shut-up time for Harbaugh. The fiery coach regressed to 8-5 last season with a young team, and getting back to 10 or more wins will be imperative for this year’s batch of Wolverines.
Brandon Peters looks likely to get the nod at quarterback to start the season, but he will need to be wary of redshirt freshman Dylan McCaffrey. Whoever quarterbacks the offense, he will get to work with a stacked group of experienced players. The year of seasoning will pay dividends as players like Karan Higdon and Donovan Peoples-Jones break out fully as stars in Ann Arbor. They will need to improve on last year’s marks, where Michigan managed fewer than 350 yards and only 25 points per game.
Last year, defense carried the Wolverines to eight wins. A unit that gave up only 271 yards and 19 points per game returns nine starters from last season. That should help cover for any growing pains that remain on offense, especially with young quarterbacks leading the unit. Michigan might be overrated at No. 15, but they will be somewhere in the mid-teens when the preseason AP Top 25 is released.
The defending Pac-12 champions have some major holes to fill, even with seven starters returning on each side of the ball. Keeping the conference crown in 2018 is going to be difficult for Clay Helton‘s crew. USC was on the cusp of the College Football Playoff last season, but losing so much talent will prevent the Trojans from reaching the top 10 of the initial AP Top 25 for 2018.
The highest-profile loss is undoubtedly Sam Darnold, the quarterback who made his name as a redshirt freshman and plateaued in 2017 as a surefire first-round talent. His replacement could be a true freshman, if JT Daniels can win the starting role out of the gate this spring. More likely, he will follow a similar trajectory to Darnold, who sat the first few games of his redshirt freshman year behind Max Browne before being handed the offense.
USC’s defense lost a couple of key cogs as well, with Uchenna Nwosu and Rasheem Green both going on the second day of the 2018 NFL Draft. They also lost veteran Porter Gustin for four to six weeks to a torn meniscus during preseason practices, further depleting their depth at the start of the season. The Trojans are still a top-15 team in the AP Top 25, but they could launch higher in the polls quickly by the time they take on Texas in mid-September.
In 2017, Auburn was the only team in the country who played both of the College Football Playoff finalists and the only team to finish the year undefeated. The Tigers took down both Georgia and Alabama during the regular season, but they finished the year with a close loss to UCF in the Peach Bowl. It was an up-and-down season on the Plains for Gus Malzahn’s crew, but they have plenty of pieces to make another go at the SEC West and a major bowl berth.
Jarrett Stidham is back for his final year of eligibility at quarterback after transferring from Baylor. Ryan Davis, Darius Slayton, and Will Hastings all return after finishing as the top three receivers on the team last year. The running game could suffer a bit, as Kerryon Johnson is off to the NFL and Kamryn Pettway has also departed Auburn. Kam Martin returns to the Tigers backfield as the top running back after posting 773 yards and five touchdowns in his first two seasons.
Daniel Carlson was drafted in the fifth round of the 2018 NFL Draft, leaving a hole at placekicker that could prove costly in close games this year. The defense and offense both lost five starters. But with the players that do return to the Plains, hope runs high among the War Eagle crowd that Auburn can quickly vault back up into the top 10 of the AP Top 25 with a big non-conference win over Pac-12 contender Washington to start the season.
Stanford has high expectations of contending once again in the Pac-12 North. David Shaw‘s team will duel with Washington for the division crown this year, and whichever team emerges from the battle will be the favorite to take the conference title. But because of the loss of so much talent on defense, the Cardinal will be rated outside the top 10 in the preseason release of the AP Top 25.
Only three starters from last year’s group return this year. Defensive tackle Harrison Phillips, safety Justin Reid, and edge rusher Peter Kalambayi all landed with teams in the 2018 NFL Draft. The other starting safety, Quenton Meeks, landed as an undrafted free agent with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Even so, an upperclassman-heavy defense with as many as 12 seniors in the two-deep should miss few beats.
They should have little trouble keeping most opponents behind on the scoreboard, no matter what kind of night they are having. That is because this year’s Cardinal offense could break out as a strong vintage on the Farm. Not only does Heisman contender Bryce Love return for one more year at Stanford, but they have settled on KJ Costello as their full-time quarterback after he seized the reins from Keller Chryst and Ryan Burns last season. That should help improve the chances for the Pac-12 contender.
The Spartans are increasingly looking like the best choice in the Big Ten East thanks to the ongoing saga in Columbus. Last year, Michigan State returned to prominence after a one-year slip and were in contention for the division title into November. This year, Mark Dantonio‘s team has a veteran team ready to take its best chance at getting to Indianapolis.
Brian Lewerke will be taking snaps from a new center after Brian Allen was drafted in the fourth round of the 2018 NFL Draft by the Los Angeles Rams. Other than that, every other player on offense will be familiar to the second-year starter at quarterback. Lewerke has receivers like Felton Davis III and Cody White to make life easier and running back L.J. Scott is back for his senior year as well.
The offense is stacked, but so is the defense. Michigan State brought back all but two of their defensive starters from 2017, and only four teams in the FBS bring back more returning production on defense. They probably won’t quite crack the top 10, but the Spartans will be right on the cusp lurking in the pre-teens of the preseason AP Top 25.
Notre Dame will likely round out the top 10 of the AP Top 25 as the Fighting Irish get the benefit of the doubt in 2018. Brian Kelly’s squad brings back only 10 of last year’s 22 starters on offense and defense. But the Irish were slotted in at No. 11 in the Coaches Poll, and the AP will probably be even more forgiving about the glaring omissions throughout the Notre Dame roster.
Brandon Wimbush will be working with a lot of new personnel on offense. Besides the starting quarterback, only three other starters on offense return from last year’s group. Josh Adams is a tough loss from the backfield after a strong rushing campaign in 2017. Losing top receivers Equanimeous St. Brown and Kevin Stepherson will also hurt, especially if WImbush can’t get into a groove with his new targets early.
The defense was not quite as gutted as the offense, though five starters departed South Bend after last season. Big tests abound, beginning with a renewal of their rivalry against Michigan to open the season. Notre Dame also has to play other AP Top 25 teams such as Stanford, USC, Virginia Tech, and Florida State this year. If they win, they’ll be high up the polls and lurking in College Football Playoff contention.
Miami is a team that sits at a crossroads. In his third year at the helm of his alma mater, Mark Richt has the Hurricanes on an upward trajectory. A solid mix of veteran and fresh talent could coalesce to get Miami back to the ACC championship game. Eight starters return on each side of the ball, giving the Hurricanes a solid foundation from which to build upon last year’s division title and Orange Bowl appearance.
Malik Rosier is back for his final season piloting the offense. He can no longer rely on the hard running of Mark Walton to keep defenses honest. In Walton’s spot, Travis Homer needs to become more reliable as a junior if the Hurricanes hope to stay on track in the ACC Coastal. But Rosier also needs to improve upon his 54 percent completion percentage if Miami hopes to improve on last year’s 10-win campaign.
A defense that finished 28th in points allowed and 38th in yards allowed last year should get even better in 2018. Miami is indeed relevant once again, thanks to its former quarterback. This is Richt’s window of opportunity to win with this crop of stars, though there will certainly be more chances to party in Coral Gables for the U.
Penn State moves on to life after Saquon Barkley this season. A do-everything sensation for the Nittany Lions over the past few years, Barkley now gets to ply his trade for the New York Giants. That leaves James Franklin‘s team searching for the next great running back in Happy Valley. Meanwhile, they will likely turn toward their passing game even more in 2018 as Ricky Rahne takes over for Joe Moorhead at offensive coordinator.
Trace McSorley is back for Penn State at quarterback, and he gets back targets such as DeAndre Thompkins and Juwan Johnson. DaeSean Hamilton and tight end Mike Gesicki will be missed, but there is plenty of receiving talent available and ready to step up. On the other hand, nobody can really replace everything that Barkley brought to the table. Miles Sanders and Mark Allen will likely split carries this year as they try their best to approximate Barkley’s all-around output.
While the offense is in relatively good shape, Penn State’s defense alone comes nowhere near the top 10. Only three of last year’s defensive starters are back in 2018. The entire secondary has turned over, both defensive tackles from last season have moved on, and there are glaring holes all around. If the Nittany Lions plummet down the AP Top 25 this year, it will be because their defense never came together.
Washington was tabbed as a top-six team by the Coaches Poll, and they could get similar treatment from the AP Top 25. The Huskies enter the new season as the favorites in the Pac-12 North and look poised to make another run at returning to the College Football Playoff one more time with their core group of stars in the backfield. They get a chance to consolidate position in the AP Top 25 right away with a key non-conference showdown against Auburn.
Both Jake Browning and Myles Gaskin are back for the Huskies. Chico McClatcher looks ready to return to the field after his nasty injury last year, and he needs to be at full speed for the Huskies to have a balanced attack. Losing Coleman Shelton puts a hole at the center spot, but this should be another productive offense in Seattle.
Where the bigger question marks fall are once again on defense. We’ve seen this game before, as Washington sends a bunch of talent to the NFL and somehow only seems to get better on defense. The team’s core up the middle of the front seven was obliterated, though, with defensive tackle Vita Vea and inside linebackers Azeem Victor and Keishawn Bierria all getting picked in the 2018 NFL Draft. Even with those losses, though, pollsters will give Chris Petersen’s team the benefit of the doubt and put them in the bottom half of the top 10.
Once again in 2018, the Big Ten West looks like it is Wisconsin’s division to lose. The Badgers are gunning for a third consecutive trip to Indianapolis. But this year looks like the best in Chryst’s tenure in Madison for the Badgers to win not just the division but their first Big Ten title since winning three straight under Bret Bielema between 2010 and 2012.
The offense should be quite solid this season at Wisconsin. Jonathan Taylor was a revelation as a freshman last season, and the running back is one of the best runners coming back in the FBS this season. Along wtih Alex Hornibrook back at quarterback, another year of experience should yield even more offensive consistency for the Badgers. The biggest loss is tight end Troy Fumagalli, a fifth-round pick of the Denver Broncos.
Defensively, the Badgers suffered far more losses. Four of Wisconsin’s starters from last year’s top-three defense were picked in the 2018 NFL Draft. Another three were picked up as undrafted free agents. With only four starters returning, Wisconsin’s doubts like on the side of the ball where they are usually strongest. It will prevent the Badgers from breaking into the top five of the AP Top 25, but they will still begin the year in single digits in the polls.
It will be awfully tough for Lincoln Riley to match the success of his former boss, Bob Stoops. Back in the BCS era, Stoops won the national championship in 2000 in his second season with Oklahoma. Riley enters year two of his time in charge in Norman with a big question mark at quarterback. The Sooners lost Heisman winner Baker Mayfield to the first overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft.
Last year, Mayfield finished 2017 as the most efficient passer in the country for the second year in a row. Kyler Murray, like Mayfield a multi-year member of the team after transferring from a different Power Five school, looks like the best bet to replace the Heisman winner. But Murray brings a different style that is unlikely to match Mayfield’s production.
Still, there are a fair number of teams in the Big 12 who could reasonably be considered contenders in the conference. We will probably see several of the league’s teams ranked in the preseason AP Top 25, but none so highly as the usual suspects from Norman. Unlike Stoops, who got a second season with Josh Heupel to win the title, Riley will have to lean on a better-stocked defense to get the job done in 2018.
Until Urban Meyer was placed on administrative leave, Ohio State looked far and away like the class of the Big Ten this year. The Coaches Poll already put the Buckeyes up at No. 3 in their initial rankings. And while the uncertainty around Meyer’s status has Ohio State sitting in limbo, the AP Top 25 will probably still list the Buckeyes as a top-five squad.
But while they will almost certainly be highly ranked, there are still questions about whether this is the top team in the Big Ten East. The Buckeyes lost seven starters on defense, but Nick Bosa is back to terrorize opposing backfields. So too is safety Jordan Fuller, the second-leading tackler on last year’s squad. There is plenty of talent in Columbus to field another solid defensive unit in 2018.
There are even fewer question marks on offense. While longtime starter J.T. Barrett is gone from campus, Dwayne Haskins proved in backup duty last year that he is ready to take on a larger role for the Buckeyes under center. He will enjoy the two-headed backfield of J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber as he transitions to full-time work. Meyer or no Meyer, the Buckeyes will certainly be among the top teams in the AP Top 25 until they prove otherwise.
Last year’s SEC champions lost a pair of major talents when running backs Sony Michel and Nick Chubb were selected four spots apart in the first and second round respectively in the 2018 NFL Draft. D’Andre Swift, Brian Herrien, and Elijah Holyfield will look to replace the production of the departed duo, who combined for 31 rushing touchdowns and more than 2500 yards on the ground last year.
The team could shift toward more of a passing attack in 2018. Jake Fromm is back Between the Hedges, and Kirby Smart and offensive coordinator Jim Chaney could give the quarterback more leeway to air out the ball. Javon Wims is now with the Chicago Bears, but the top three receivers behind him last year are all back. Look out for Riley Ridley and Terry Godwin to explode with more targets.
The biggest loss wasn’t Michel or Chubb but rather Roquan Smith. The linebacker led the SEC in solo and total tackles last season, and he also recovered a pair of fumbles and knocked down a couple of passes for good measure. Smith was a safety net at the second level that will be the hardest piece of last year’s squad to replace. D’Andre Walker and Juwan Taylor bring senior leadership to the linebacker group, and the schedule lines up to stay high in the AP Top 25.
Clemson has become a perennial contender for not just the ACC title but the national title. The 2016 College Football Playoff champions were back in the final four last year for Alabama-Clemson III. This time the Tigers had no answer for the Crimson Tide, falling 24-6 in the Sugar Bowl on New Year’s Day.
Kelly Bryant returns for what should be a solid second season as a starter. Last year, Bryant threw for a relatively pedestrian 2800 yards. Only once, in September at Louisville, did Bryant go over 300 passing yards in a game. But with Tavien Feaster and Travis Etienne returning in the backfield, Bryant will have plenty of support on the ground. Both Feaster and Etienne could vie for 1000-yard seasons in 2018 after strong showings last year.
Clemson lost a few key players on defense, but nine starters return to the unit. Especially critical for their hopes of a fourth straight College Football Playoff appearance is the return of all four defensive linemen from last year’s squad. That alone should earn Clemson a couple of first-place votes in the initial AP Top 25.
Naturally, Alabama is going to start the 2018 season right where they ended it last year. The Crimson Tide are the constant in the equation that will undoubtedly sit atop the AP Top 25 when it is released on August 20.
Nick Saban has two potential starters at quarterback. Jalen Hurts spent most of the season leading the offense, while Tua Tagovailoa came in as a closer to seal the national championship against Georgia.
Damien Harris returns to the backfield after a 1000-yard season. Joshua Jacobs and Najee Harris also return to spell Harris in a multifaceted and incredibly talented group of runners. Hurts was the second-leading rusher last season, but Tagovailoa brings a similar skill set if he wins the quarterback battle.
The defense lost eight starters, but it is hard to imagine that Saban will allow the unit to slip. Alabama has ranked in the top 10 in points allowed every season since 2008, and at this point it would be hard to bet against the streak continuing for an 11th year in a row.
Alabama has rarely finished a season undefeated, pulling it off only once in Saban’s tenure so far. This will probably not be the year it happens again, but for the third straight season Alabama will open the season atop the AP Top 25.