UCF Football: Is Knights’ schedule stronger without North Carolina game?

Hurricane Florence forced the cancellation of UCF football‘s game against North Carolina. How did the loss of a Power Five game impact the Knights’ schedule?

As Hurricane Florence approaches the Atlantic seaboard, football games in North Carolina and Virginia have been canceled or postponed. One of the cancellations is the trip by No. 18 UCF to face North Carolina. It is the second straight season that the Knights lose a shot at playing a Power Five team.

This year, however, losing that opportunity could actually improve UCF’s chances of reaching a New Year’s Six bowl game. Yes, you read that right — not playing North Carolina could ultimately be a boon for the Knights this season, just like avoiding a 5-6 Georgia Tech team last year didn’t harm UCF in the long run.

Here are a few quick reasons why this is a net positive for Josh Heupel’s team and one intriguing possibility.

East Carolina already knocked off North Carolina this season

UCF was going to enter the North Carolina game basically in a no-win situation. Even if they did take down the Tar Heels, they wouldn’t be the first Group of Five squad to do so in 2018. Fellow AAC East member East Carolina already topped North Carolina when the Tar Heels visited Boone in Week 2. The Pirates toppled UNC 41-19 on the strength of 500 yards of offense.

No matter how badly the Knights might have taken down the Tar Heels, pollsters would have looked at that win by East Carolina and asked themselves how much UCF should be rewarded for taking down a team that had already lost to one of the Knights’ divisional rivals. Even if they won by 10 or 20 more points than the Pirates, and even though they would have won the game on the road, there would be a ceiling for how much impact a win over UNC would have after the ECU loss.

North Carolina was not going to be a major boost for UCF

In terms of potential Power Five opponents, North Carolina was going to be near the bottom of the barrel. They are the only winless team in the ACC at this point of the year, with a season-opening loss against California in Berkeley preceding the stumble at East Carolina.

Looking at them from the standpoint of the Sagarin computer rankings, they are 12 percent worse than the average ACC Coastal opponent and 13 percent worse than the average of all ACC squads. When you expand it out to all Power Five teams, the Tar Heels are 15 percent weaker than the average major-conference opponent that UCF might face. Compared to other computer models such as the Massey ratings, the Sagarin numbers might actually be conservative.

Beyond the East Carolina conundrum, playing North Carolina wold have provided little material benefit for UCF from a pure strength-of-schedule standpoint.

The Knights still have another chance to make a Power Five statement

Just like last year, UCF had two games against major-conference opponents on their schedule when the season began. That offered a contingency in case this very thing happened. With the trip to Chapel Hill off the table, the Knights now turn their attention to the home date against Pittsburgh.

To be fair, Pitt is hardly much better an opponent than North Carolina. The Panthers took down FCS Albany in the season opener, but then turned around and were thoroughly outclassed by Penn State in a 51-6 blowout loss at home. Beating the Panthers will be only marginally a bigger boost. But at least they are a 1-1 team that faces Georgia Tech and North Carolina before taking on the Knights. They should be at least 2-2 once they face UCF.

The fact that Pitt has no other American Athletic Conference opponents left on the schedule also bodes well for UCF. Without a direct comparison possible against another AAC member, a win over Pitt can be measured on its own merits.

Could the door be open to play an even bigger opponent this year?

With the loss of the North Carolina game, UCF has the chance to set up an even bigger game against a replacement opponent. If both teams really had marketing chops, Alabama and UCF would play one another on their joint bye week on October 27 in a showdown of last year’s College Football Playoff champion and the only undefeated team of 2017.

That, naturally, is never going to happen. Nick Saban would never accede to such a request. Neither will Alabama’s Iron Bowl rival, Auburn, who suffered the Peach Bowl loss that capped UCF’s 13-0 season last year.

Other teams available on the schedule that week include a couple of Big Ten teams such as Ohio State and Michigan. And then some have suggested that the Knights meet up against a foe quite familiar to the folks in Orlando.

Nebraska, of course, is the new home of former UCF head coach Scott Frost. The former Cornhuskers quarterback took over at his alma mater after leading the Knights to a perfect season last year. Nebraska is rated more than seven points higher in the Sagarin computer rankings, which means they would provide a legitimate boost to UCF’s strength of schedule rather than the null value that UNC would have provided.

Of course, if the Knights are just trying to get any opponent on their schedule, flattery certainly couldn’t hurt from teams trying to court UCF to play them.

The possibility remains that the Knights and Tar Heels still work out a replacement date later in the season. And if they do, it isn’t as though North Carolina is going to completely tank UCF’s strength of schedule.

But losing the opportunity to play North Carolina certainly won’t ruin any chances UCF have of reaching a major bowl game this year. As we saw just last year, going 12-0 with a conference championship will keep the Knights in the New Year’s Six discussion.