4. Oregon will win first and third down on both sides of the ball
Oregon has been really good at generating positive yardage and creating manageable down-and-distance situations for themselves in 2018. The Ducks rank in the top quartile nationally in both first-down and third-down offense. They are 32nd in the FBS with 73 first-down conversions, and they rank 30th in the country by converting 47.6 percent of their third-down plays into first downs.
Oregon has also been great at stopping teams from moving the chains. Opponents have managed to move the chains only 47 times in the first quarter of the regular season, putting Oregon 34th in the country in the defensive category. The Ducks are allowing opposing offenses to convert only 26.5 percent of their third downs — and, for that matter, only 16.7 percent of their fourth downs. Both marks rank in the top 15 in the FBS.
That will be dangerous for Stanford, which has struggled especially on offense in keeping drives going. David Shaw’s team has produced just 49 first downs to date, putting them outside the top 100 in the country. They convert only one-third of their third-down tries, putting them 103rd-best at moving the chains and preventing fourth downs.
That is going to prove fatal for Stanford when they take to the road on Saturday. But that is hardly the only reason they will tumble.