Texas football looks to keep momentum going with ranked upset over TCU
By Zach Bigalke
Texas football is coming off the emotional high of taking down USC at home last weekend. They remain in Austin this week for a Big 12 showdown against TCU.
Texas is something of an enigma this season. They opened the year ranked, promptly fell for the second straight season against Maryland, and fell right back out of the AP Top 25 and the Coaches Poll. Then the Longhorns followed that up by narrowly escaping a trap game at home against Tulsa before blowing out USC 37-14 in Week 3.
That win over the Trojans made a major statement, and the Longhorns started earning a few votes in the two major polls once again. Now they open up the Big 12 round robin with a home date against No. 17 TCU. The Horned Frogs have won four straight over the flagship school in the Lone Star State, and the Longhorns have never really been close. TCU’s average margin of victory over Texas during the College Football Playoff era has been 30 points.
This year, the Longhorns give up three more points on average than the Horned Frogs. When they have the ball, Texas averages 10 fewer points per game than TCU. In all facets of the game, Gary Patterson’s team is the far more polished challenger to Oklahoma in this year’s Big 12 race.
Is there any realistic chance that Texas could pull off another upset on Saturday at home? After taking down USC in the non-conference mismatch, the Longhorns will be confident against another ranked opponent this week. Here’s how you can watch the Saturday evening game between No. 17 TCU and Texas:
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Date: Saturday, Sept. 22
Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
Location: Austin, Texas
Venue: Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium
TV: FOX
Live Stream: FOX Sports Go | FuboTV
Keys to Victory
Texas has to play much better if and when they get into the red zone to have any chance of taking down TCU on Saturday. The Longhorns rank in the bottom 10 nationally in red zone scoring, and they are taking on a Horned Frogs team that is in the top dozen in the FBS at getting stops inside their own 20. Tom Herman’s team cannot leave points on the field when they get into scoring range if they hope to keep up with TCU’s prolific offense.
On the TCU sideline, victory will depend on whether they can win the field position battle. The Horned Frogs rank 105th in the country in net punting, and they have already endured one blocked punt so far this season. The defense is sound, the Horned Frogs score enough points, and to pull out victory on the road they simply need to reduce mistakes and wrap up cleanly on special teams.
Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of oddsshark.com
Point Spread: TCU -3
Over/Under: 47
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Prediction
Texas opened eyes across the country last week when they took down USC. But that was in part the consequence of a young Trojans team faltering on the road. TCU is more experienced and more likely to bring the Longhorns back down to earth. There will be far more scoring than the Vegas oddsmakers seem to think will transpire in Austin, but the home crowd won’t leave happy when the game is in the books
Final Score: TCU 41, Texas 28