Miami football must utilize turnovers to fend off Florida State upset

Miami football will take the field as a two-touchdown favorite when it hosts rival Florida State on Saturday. Can the Hurricanes stay in the ACC hunt with a win?

Since Miami joined the ACC, Florida State and Miami rarely seem to manage to be good at the same time. But when it comes to rivalry games, a team’s relative quality often flies out the window. There is no love lost just because one team comes in as a clear underdog.

And make no mistake, Florida State is most certainly an underdog in this matchup at Hard Rock Stadium on Saturday afternoon. The Seminoles are outside the top 100 in scoring in Willie Taggart’s first season at the helm in Tallahassee. They struggle to get first downs, to convert on third downs, and to get points in the red zone. It is the sort of mixture that usually adds up to a long day on the road.

Miami, on the other hand, boasts a shutdown defense that is great at getting through opposing offensive lines and gives up just 16.8 points per game. The offense, with redshirt freshman N’Kosi Perry taking over for senior Malik Rosier at quarterback, has been scoring more than 44 points per game. The Hurricanes rank 16th in the country in both points scored and points allowed per game through the first month of 2018.

After losing the season opener to an LSU team that was ranked at the time and that has vaulted up into the top five in the AP Top 25, the Hurricanes enter October on a four-game winning streak. Will Mark Richt’s team jump to 5-1 with a win at home, or can the Seminoles spoil the start of the new month for the Canes?

Here’s how you can watch the Saturday showdown between No. 17 Miami and Florida State:

Date: Saturday, Oct. 6
Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
Location: Miami Gardens, Fla.
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
TV: ABC
Live Stream: WatchESPN | FuboTV

Keys to Victory

Since the defense should have no problem clamping down on Florida State’s offense, the main variable between success and failure is whether they can put up enough points on their rival. For Miami to shut down the Seminoles on Saturday, they need first and foremost for N’Kosi Perry to live up to the hype in the tense atmosphere of the Sunshine State rivalry. The Hurricanes also need Travis Homer and Deejay Dallas to balance the offense out and keep pressure off Perry.

Florida State, on the other hand, needs to make Miami’s defense a concern for Mark Richt and his staff. If the Seminoles can snag an early lead, and then play from the front, they could have a small chance at pulling off the upset. Cam Akers needs to have a breakout day after a slow start to the new year, and Deondre Francois needs to play a near-perfect day without any turnovers.

Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com

Point Spread: Miami -13.5
Over/Under: 48.5

Prediction

The annual interdivisional slugfest between the Hurricanes and the Seminoles is going to go mostly the way of the hosts on Saturday. Perry is going to put up the first 300-yard passing day of his college career, and Cam Akers will bolster a lackluster day with a late garbage-time touchdown. It won’t be enough to let Florida State beat the spread on the road as they fall to .500 in the standings.

Final Score: Miami 31, Florida State 17