Red River Shootout 2018: 3 Bold predictions for Texas vs Oklahoma

3. Texas covers the spread

Oddshark lists Oklahoma as a 7-point favorite against Texas. The line opened at 8-points and gradually came down during the week, a sign of what many already have suspected — this game is going to be a close one.

By most metrics, it looks like Oklahoma should run away with this game. They are outgaining the Longhorns on the ground and through the air. They average more than 60 percent more production on a per-play basis (8.9 yards to 5.3 yards) and are pretty close with the Longhorns on defense. Texas allows 4.8 yards per play to the Sooners 5.0 yards per play.

In games like this, you have to throw out the records. Toss the stats, the common sense and what seems most likely and get ready for the improbable and unpredictable. How else do you explain each of the last four contests between these teams being decided by a touchdown or less? Another interesting note? Three of those last four one-score games featured a line of 13.5-points or more.

Rivalry games always find a way to defy logic. Oklahoma has the College Football Playoff on their mind, but they’ll have to work to beat Texas and win the Red River Shootout this year.