Penn State Football: Can Nittany Lions exact revenge on Michigan State?

Penn State football will look to exact revenge on Saturday afternoon against a disappointing Michigan State team. Which side will prevail?

James Franklin may have had the play call of the year two weeks ago against Ohio State.

Going into their matchup against the Ohio State Buckeyes, the Nittany Lions were pegged as 3.5-point underdogs even though they held the home-field advantage. Penn State and Ohio State’s rivalry renewed after multiple Nittany Lion down seasons when the Buckeyes traveled to Happy Valley and leaving with a big loss at the hands of Penn State cornerback Grant Haley who returned a blocked kick for six points, giving the Lions their first win over the Buckeyes in four years.

With the game on the line against Ohio State, Franklin decided to go with a read option on fourth and five which had its ups and downs. If the read option went well, Ohio State wouldn’t have been able to stop Trace McSorley or Miles Sanders for around 15 yards, given they ran a full zero-blitz. Unfortunately, Sanders got the ball and was swallowed up almost immediately and effectively ending any chance for the Lions to win.

This week, Penn State faces an all too familiar foe in Michigan State. The two schools have faced off a total of 32 times and Michigan State took the lead a season ago by defeating the Lions in East Lansing on a last-second field goal.

The largest margin of victory between the two teams in 2015 when Connor Cook threw three touchdown passes while the Michigan State defense forced four turnovers in a 55-16 beatdown of the Christian Hackenberg-led Nittany Lions.

This season, Penn State has looked better than I had expected they’d look this season. Their offense barely skipped a beat with so many losses over the offseason and having a quarterback like Trace McSorley makes transitioning offensive players very easy. The Nittany Lions’ defense is what has surprised me the most. They returned only two starters from a season ago but most of the starting defensive unit had in-game experience.

Their defense, however, lacked the depth that they’ve had historically and that was what I had presumed to be their downfall. After giving up 38 points to Appalachian State Week 1, Penn State has held every team they’ve played under 30 points including an Ohio State team that is averaging .599 points per play this season (10th most nationally).

Michigan State, on the other hand — yikes. After narrowly escaping Utah State in Week 1, the Spartans took to the road and lost to Arizona State after leading for 35 minutes of the game. Then after wins over Indiana and Central Michigan, Michigan State lost to Northwestern behind Clayton Thorson’s four-touchdown performance.

The real problem for the Spartans this season continues to be their ground game. The Spartans are currently ranked 110th nationally in rushing offense which is a whole 48 spots lower than last season.

LJ Scott, who has started most games over the past several seasons, is averaging barely three yards per carry, and is injured, while Connor Heyward, who currently leads in carries, is averaging 3.5 yards per carry. Brian Lewerke averaged 4.5 yards per carry last season and has now fallen to a measly 1.5 yards per carry this season on surprisingly fewer carries.

Can the Lions bounce back at home? Or will the Spartans prevail once again?

Date: Saturday, Oct. 13
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: University Park, Penn.
Venue: Beaver Stadium
TV: Big Ten Network
LiveStream: BTN2Go or FuboTV

Players To Watch

Michigan State

Penn State

Keys to Victory

Michigan State must do anything to stop the pass and to move the ball on the ground. Penn State has the fourth-best scoring offense nationally with an average of 49.6 points per game and luckily for Michigan State, most of their scores come on the ground. Michigan State’s run defense is the best nationally with only four rushing touchdowns allowed this year.

The Spartans have to get McSorley to beat them through the air and hope that this dumpster-fire of a secondary can force McSorley to make a play. Penn State has a great deal of talent in its front-seven but not much depth. If Michigan State can do anything to move the ball on the ground and pound away on the front seven, they can wear the defense out. The most important thing is not to make Lewerke pass 51 times again.

Let McSorley do McSorley things. He has a career completion percentage of 60.9 percent which isn’t the greatest but he averages 8.5 yards per attempt. The senior quarterback might not complete all of his passes, but what he does complete goes a good way down the field and with guys like Juwan Johnson and KJ Hamler on the receiving end.

The Michigan State front is good at stopping the run but the Spartans have the seventh worst passing defense nationally. If the Nittany Lions find success passing the ball, Michigan State won’t have the offense to keep up as Penn State avenges last year’s loss.

Betting Odds

Courtesy of OddsShark

Line: Penn State -13.5
Over/Under: 53.5

Next. NFL Mock Draft 2019: First round after Week 6. dark

Prediction

Most years, this game would play a key role in deciding the East but this year is not one of those years. James Franklin is ruthless when it comes to revenge spots, as we’ve seen with Pitt over the past several seasons, and this game will be no different. Michigan State has done little to impress all season on offense and just simply won’t be able to keep up.

Final Score: Penn State 34, Michigan State 18

Home/Penn State Nittany Lions