2. Tua starts, but is on a pitch count
Last week I incorrectly predicted that Tua Tagovailoa would throw his first fourth-quarter pass of the season against Missouri. It seems likely that it will be at least a couple more weeks before that happens now.
I’m expecting Nick Saban to have a lower pitch-count for Tua on Saturday in Knoxville, and will give him the hook a little quicker than he normally would in most games with the sophomore dealing with a knee sprain that forced him out of the game against Missouri early in the third quarter.
Saban will likely want to put the pedal to the metal from the opening gun to try and get a comfortable three-touchdown lead that would allow him to insert Jalen Hurts, wrap Tua up in bubble-wrap, and let him have two weeks to get healthy before the trek to Baton Rouge.
Starting quickly is nothing new to Tua and the Crimson Tide offense – they’ve scored a touchdown on their first drive in every game this season. Their average opening drive is about 1:27 long – the longest was an 8-play, 72-yard opening drive that took 3:35 against Louisiana-Lafayette in a game where Alabama looked to establish the run early after a disappointing ground effort the previous week against Texas A&M.
Alabama has found the endzone in three-plays or less on opening drives four times this season:
– Against Ole Miss, after surrendering an opening-play touchdown to the Rebels (the only time Alabama has trailed in a game this season), the Crimson Tide answered with a 43-yard touchdown run by Damien Harris on their third play of the game.
– Against Texas A&M, following a Mack Wilson interception of Aggies quarterback Kellen Mond, Tua hit Devonta Smith for a 30-yard touchdown on the first play.
– Against Arkansas, Tua dumped off a pass to Irv Smith Jr. on the first play that the tight end turned into a 75-yard touchdown.
– Against Missouri last week, Tua hit Jerry Jeudy for an 81-yard touchdown on a beautiful deep-ball on the game’s second snap.
It’s ludicrous how good the Alabama offense has been this season – they never allow the opposition to breath; instead, they jump on them from the opening possession and remove any shred of hope.
I expect Alabama to get off to a quick start again with the passing game, and then to cede the way for the running backs to carry them from there.