College Football Predictions 2018: Picks for the biggest games of Week 8
Auburn at Ole Miss (12 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Spread: Auburn -4
Saturday’s SEC bout in Oxford will be the classic movable object vs. stoppable force matchup when Ole Miss’s defense is on the field against the Auburn offense. The Rebels rank 112th in defensive S&P+ while the Tigers rank 97th in offensive S&P+.
Auburn hit rock-bottom in last week’s loss at home to Tennessee, which snapped an 11-game SEC losing streak for the Volunteers. Auburn entered the year with playoff aspirations and now they’re going to have to scrap and claw to even make a bowl game.
Auburn’s offensive line has been a mess, which has caused them to struggle running the football. Last weekend’s 126 yards was the first time Auburn eclipsed 100 yards rushing since week three against LSU. The Tigers currently rank 83rd in the country in rushing offense. Auburn hasn’t finished lower than 35th in rushing offense in any of Gus Malzahn’s five previous seasons as head coach.
The lack of a ground attack has forced Jarrett Stidham into some uncomfortable third-and-longs. He’s also been under constant pressure, getting sacked 15 times – third-most among SEC quarterbacks. He also ranks 10th in the conference in quarterback rating, a shocking mark for a quarterback who was considered one of the favorites to be the first quarterback taken in the 2019 NFL Draft.
If Auburn wants to avoid their third consecutive loss, they’ll need a better performance from their secondary on Saturday. Tennessee’s Jarrett Guarantano found success through the air last weekend, mainly with jump balls to his big receivers. There’s no doubt that Matt Luke and Jordan Ta’amu saw that on tape, and will look to take advantage.
Even without D.K. Metcalf, the Rebels still boast a gluttony of talented receivers led by A.J. Brown and DaMarkus Lodge. Expect Ole Miss to look to exploit any one-on-one matchups they can get on the outside while testing the Auburn secondary deep.
A loss here for Auburn would put their bowl hopes in serious doubt with games remaining against Texas A&M, Georgia, and Alabama. It would also likely spark even more GoFundMe pages to pay for Gus Malzahn’s massive buyout.
Pick: Ole Miss 37, Auburn 31