Kentucky Football: Wildcats in familiar underdog role at Missouri

Kentucky football finds itself in a familiar underdog role as the Wildcats travel to Columbia for an SEC matchup against Missouri.

The Kentucky Wildcats have moved up to No. 12 in the latest AP Poll, and at 6-1, 4-1 in the SEC, the Wildcats are right in the thick of the SEC East, and even the College Football Playoff, race. And yet, despite that fact, doubts remain about the legitimacy of this team mostly because of the name on their jerseys.

Saturday afternoon’s bout with Missouri will mark the fourth time in eight games Kentucky has been an underdog, not including the fact that they actually opened as underdogs against South Carolina at home before bettors made oddsmakers look foolish with heavy Wildcat wagering that shifted the line.

Led by workhorse RB Benny Snell Jr., and an elite defense, this is the best iteration of the Wildcats that Mark Stoops has fielded, and if they can come out on top on the road over Missouri, the SEC East might very well be on the line when Georgia comes to Lexington next weekend.

At some point, you have to figure Barry Odom’s Missouri Tigers are going to earn a signature win. The Tigers are 4-3, with two of their three losses coming against SEC heavyweights Georgia and Alabama. The other was a fluky road loss at South Carolina that was played in the middle of a monsoon; a game Missouri probably should have won.

Missouri’s hopes of competing for an SEC East title are gone after an 0-3 start in league play, but with Kentucky this week and Florida the next, the Tigers have the firepower to play spoiler in the SEC East race.

Here’s how you can watch Saturday afternoon’s SEC showdown between Kentucky and Missouri:

Date: Saturday, Oct. 27
Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
Location: Columbia, Mo.
Venue: Memorial Stadium
TV: SECN
Live Stream: WatchESPN | FuboTV

Keys to Victory

Last week, Kentucky attempted only nine passes in an old-school slobber-knocking 14-7 win over Vanderbilt. It’s safe to say this week they will need more out of sophomore QB Terry Wilson to keep Missouri from stacking the box to stop Snell and the Kentucky ground game. Wilson has struggled throwing this season, ranking 13th out of 14 starting QB’s in the SEC in passer efficiency, with more interceptions than touchdown passes on the season. It will be imperative that Wilson takes care of the ball and makes some plays as a downfield passer to keep the Missouri defense honest.

Missouri’s key to a win will be all about keeping Drew Lock upright and in a clean pocket. Lock finally broke out of a dry spell last week after throwing just one touchdown pass in three games, which not coincidentally, were all Missouri losses. Lock had four touchdown passes and 350 yards in the win over Memphis. Lock was not sacked once against Memphis after going down seven times in the previous three games. He has struggled when facing pressure, and you can expect Kentucky’s ferocious defense, led by star LB Josh Allen, to bring the heat on Saturday afternoon.

Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of oddsshark.com

Point Spread: Missouri -7
Over/Under: 55

Prediction

This is strictly a case of me looking at the signs, and you can hear the Vegas alarms go off when you examine this game from a gambling perspective. When the line opened at -6 in favor of Missouri, the public was quick to jump all over Kentucky and the six points, and yet the line has increased a full point in spite of that. Vegas is practically begging you to grab Kentucky here, which is typically a bad sign for the team in the Wildcats’ position. Even if Kentucky stumbles on the road here, they’re but a Georgia win over Florida on Saturday away from once again controlling their own destiny in the SEC East race.

Final Score: Missouri 31, Kentucky 21