BYU Football: Season hangs in limbo vs. Boise State

BYU football fell to .500 at home last weekend against Northern Illinois. Can the Cougars rebound in Week 10 when they head to the Smurf Turf to face Boise State?

BYU looked like they could make a potential run at a New Year’s Six bid when they won two out of three against Power Five opponents back in September. After defeating FCS McNeese State, though, the Cougars have reversed fortunes and have lost three of their past four. Two of those losses came against Group of Five competition, including last week’s defeat against Northern Illinois in Provo.

Kalani Sitake’s squad has survived so far thanks to their defense. Tanner Mangum and the Cougars offense has regressed to 120th in yards gained and 111th in scoring. But the defense consistently picks up the slack, which is a big reason why BYU is anywhere near reaching bowl eligibility.

They face a tough opponent in Week 10, as the Cougars head northwest to Boise to take on the Broncos. While Boise State has fallen behind in the race for the Group of Five’s bid into a New Year’s Six bowl, Bryan Harsin’s team still has time to get back into the race. At 6-2 and just a game behind in the MWC Mountain race behind Utah State, the Broncos just need to keep winning.

Boise State puts their three-game winning streak on the line with Brett Rypien to pilot the efforts. The multiyear starter at quarterback for the Broncos currently rates among the dozen best passers in the FBS in every major statistical category. Rypien is the heart of a top-15 offense, and Boise State’s dreams hinge on him continuing to perform at a high level.

Can BYU go on the road and snatch their first win against the Broncos since 2015? Here’s how you can watch the Saturday showdown between non-conference BYU and Boise State:

Date: Saturday, Nov. 3
Time: 10:15 p.m. ET
Location: Boise, Idaho
Venue: Albertsons Stadium
TV: ESPN2
Live Stream: WatchESPN | FuboTV

Keys to Victory

Boise State has the advantage in most phases of the game. Avoiding any need to punt altogether would be ideal. But if and when the Broncos are forced to boot the ball away, they need to do improve on their net punting average of only 32 yards. The Broncos would also do well to keep BYU out of the red zone completely, since they allow opponents to score on seven out of every eight trips inside the Boise 20.

BYU needs Mangum to finally post his first 300-yard game in more than a calendar year to keep pace with a more consistent Broncos offense. Big days from Lopini Katoa and Squally Canada are also critical to providing offensive balance. When the hosts have the ball, the two-touchdown underdog Cougars need to find a way to get into the backfield for a change to disrupt Rypien in the pocket and blow up Alexander Mattison and the other backs before they get to the second level.

Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of oddsshark.com

Point Spread: Boise State -13.5
Over/Under: 55

Prediction

Boise State is a heavy favorite at home against a mediocre independent. The Cougars were unable yet again to build on their early-season promise, while the Broncos are still alive for a possible run at a major bowl. This is going to get out of hand, and the two teams will cover the total points largely because of Boise State’s contribution to the scoreboard.

Final Score: Boise State 48, BYU 10