It has been a dream season in Lexington, with the Wildcats debuting at No. 9 in the first CFP rankings on Tuesday, the highest they’ve ever been ranked by the committee. Kentucky sits at 7-1 following a stunning come-from-behind victory over Missouri on the road last weekend.
At 5-1 in conference, with a win over Florida already in the wagon, Kentucky hosts Georgia this weekend in a de-facto SEC East Championship Game with the winner heading to Atlanta.
If Kentucky can shock the world and upset Georgia, sending Lexington into absolute mania on Saturday, then the Wildcats would get a crack at Alabama in Atlanta, as long as the Crimson Tide holds up their end of the bargain.
How they could win
Kentucky has prospered this season on the strength of one of the best defenses in college football, and they have a unit that could harass Tua Tagovailoa and the high-powered Alabama offense. The Wildcats rank 10th in the nation in total defense, and 1st in scoring defense. A big reason why has been their stinginess in the redzone.
Kentucky only gives up points, of any kind, on 68 percent of opposing trips inside the 20-yard-line, which ranks fifth in the nation. Even better, the Wildcats have allowed just eight touchdowns on 19 opposing redzone trips, which is the second least to only Fresno State.
As good as Alabama has been this season, they’re only netting points out of 83 percent of redzone trips, which ranks 75th in the nation. Part of that is due to inconsistent field goal kicking, which could be detrimental against a defense like Kentucky’s. If the Wildcats were able to stone Alabama in the redzone and hold them to field goals, then they’d have an opportunity to do the unthinkable.
Why they won’t
It’s unlikely that Kentucky will have enough juice to take down Georgia this weekend, so it’s doubtful that they will even get a crack at Alabama.
And if they did, the Wildcats don’t have enough offensive firepower to keep up with Alabama. As good as their defense is, you can only hold down Tua and company for so long before they breakthrough. It’s also not necessary for Alabama to get in the redzone to score – 16 of Tua’s 25 touchdown passes this season have come from 20+ yards out.
A big problem the Kentucky defense would face is third downs. As good as they have been defensively, they rank 75th in the country in third-down defense, giving up a first on 40 percent of them. That would be problematic against a surgical Alabama offense that leads the nation in third downs, converting on 56 percent of them.