Houston Football: Can Cougars break into Playoff ranks with win over SMU?

Houston football was snubbed by the College Football Playoff committee after Week 9. Will the Cougars take out their frustrations on SMU or can the Mustangs prevail?

If Houston was in a Power Five conference, their 7-1 record — with every win coming by at least 15 points, no less — would earn them a spot in the top 10 of the College Football Playoff Top 25. Instead, because they play in a conference that falls below an arbitrary quality line, the Cougars were unranked with the committee’s first release on the night before Halloween.

Despite the snub, the Cougars remain one of the top teams in college football in 2018. Major Applewhite‘s side doesn’t put up the sort of defensive numbers that they have in years past, but Houston fields the top offense in the country in terms of yards produced and the second-best scoring offense behind only defending national champion Alabama.

The Cougars hit the road in Week 10 hoping to sway the committee’s mind and bolster their case for a spot in the Top 25. They head to Dallas to face an SMU team that thwarted the Cougars’ New Year’s Six quest two years ago. SMU is under .500 and needs to win three of their last four just to reach bowl eligibility.

At the same time, though, an upset of Houston would put the Mustangs one game behind the AAC West leaders and give them a head-to-head advantage. With a defense adept at taking away the ball and an offense that does a good job of protecting their possession, the trap is set for Saturday’s showdown in the Metroplex.

Will Houston march toward the division title, or will the Mustangs make things interesting at home? Here’s how you can watch the Saturday game between No. 17 Houston and SMU:

Date: Saturday, Nov. 3
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Location: Dallas, Texas
Venue: Gerald J. Ford Stadium
TV: ESPNU
Live Stream: WatchESPN | FuboTV

Keys to Victory

The problem for Houston is that merely winning against SMU, while good for their hopes of reaching the AAC championship game, does no favors for their bigger hopes of a New Year’s Six invitation. As a two-touchdown favorite, the Cougars probably have to double that margin of victory to impress the committee.

To pull off an upset against a heavy favorite, SMU has to do a better job in the red zone both when they have the ball and when Houston gets inside the Mustangs 20. When their offense gets into scoring range, SMU must take away points every time if they hope to keep up with the Houston offense. The Mustangs also need to do a better job of moving the chains than they have so far this season, and they can’t give away cheap field position on kickoffs when they do score.

Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of oddsshark.com

Point Spread: Houston -13
Over/Under: 72

Prediction

Houston has every motivation to come out and absolutely crush SMU. And given the state of the program in Dallas, there is going to be little that the Mustangs can do to stop the Cougars from overwhelming them on the scoreboard. Look for D’Eriq King to have another day passing for 400-plus yards and running for at least 100 more, while accounting for at least a half-dozen total touchdowns. This won’t be a pretty finish for Mustangs fans on Saturday evening.

Final Score: Houston 66, SMU 26