Mississippi State Football: Can Bulldogs stave off Louisiana Tech upset?
By Zach Bigalke
Mississippi State football vaulted to No. 18 in the College Football Playoff Top 25. Now they take on a Louisiana Tech side looking for a Power Five statement win.
Mississippi State dominated Texas A&M to climb into all the major polls this week, including the College Football Playoff Top 25 that released on Tuesday before Halloween. The Bulldogs opened at No. 18 in the selection committee’s rankings, setting themselves up for a possible New Year’s Six bid. Against the Aggies, Bulldogs quarterback Nick Fitzgerald singlehandedly rushed for more yardage than the entire Texas A&M backfield.
Fitzgerald is back from his brutal Egg Bowl injury to guide a strong run-based offense this year. But while new head coach Joe Moorhead may be an offensive guru, this year’s Bulldogs team is succeeding thanks to one of the top six defenses in the country. Mississippi State allows just 13.5 points and 283 yards per game to their opponents.
This week Mississippi State deviates from their SEC schedule for a showdown against a different set of Bulldogs from the Group of Five. Louisiana Tech comes to Starkville looking for a statement win that can help them make a case for a New Year’s Six shot. The Bulldogs from Ruston took down Florida Atlantic on the road in Week 9, remaining just a game behind UAB in the C-USA West standings in the process.
When Louisiana Tech gets in the red zone, they have been nearly automatic this season. Skip Holtz’s team scores on more than 93 percent of their visits inside an opponent’s 20. The Bulldogs also boast one of the most disciplined teams in the country, as they rank fifth in the FBS in both penalties incurred and yardage lost to flags.
Can a disciplined Conference USA team take down a top-20 SEC team on the road? Here’s how you can watch Saturday’s battle of the Bulldogs between No. 21 Mississippi State and Louisiana Tech:
Date: Saturday, Nov. 3
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Starkville, Miss.
Venue: Davis Wade Stadium
TV: SEC Network
Live Stream: WatchESPN | FuboTV
Keys to Victory
To have a shot at an upset on Saturday evening in Starkville, Louisiana Tech needs to put pressure on Nick Fitzgerald to keep him in the backfield and prevent big plays from developing. The C-USA visitors would do well to keep their hosts out of the red zone altogether, given their defense ranks 118th in red zone defense. If and when Mississippi State does get inside the Louisiana Tech 20, the underdogs need to hold them to field goals.
Mississippi State, meanwhile, can’t afford to cough up any turnovers given their defense’s struggles in generating takeaways this year. The host Bulldogs could stand to be more efficient when they do opt to pass the ball. Getting above 50 percent completion rate will go a long way toward a balanced offense and a climb further up the College Football Playoff rankings.
Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of oddsshark.com
Point Spread: Mississippi State -23
Over/Under: 46.5
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Prediction
Mississippi State has won the past three editions of this sporadic non-conference series over the past decade. Louisiana Tech last beat the SEC Bulldogs back in 2008, but they lack the offensive firepower to crack the home side’s defense. J’Mar Smith is going to struggle against Mississippi State as they fall in a mismatch.
Final Score: Mississippi State 38, Louisiana Tech 10