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NC State Football: Assessing Dave Doeren’s impact on the program

By Christian Candeloro

CLEMSON, SC - OCTOBER 20: Head coach Dabo Swinney of the Clemson Tigers and head coach Dave Doeren of the North Carolina State Wolfpack chat at midfield prior to their football game at Clemson Memorial Stadium on October 20, 2018 in Clemson, South Carolina. (Photo by Mike Comer/Getty Images)
CLEMSON, SC - OCTOBER 20: Head coach Dabo Swinney of the Clemson Tigers and head coach Dave Doeren of the North Carolina State Wolfpack chat at midfield prior to their football game at Clemson Memorial Stadium on October 20, 2018 in Clemson, South Carolina. (Photo by Mike Comer/Getty Images) /
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(Photo by Lance King/Getty Images)
(Photo by Lance King/Getty Images) /

Who has NC State beaten?

ESPN’s FPI predicts NC State will finish the season just north of nine wins. It would mark the second straight nine-win season, and its bowl game would provide the potential for 10 wins.

The program hasn’t achieved 10 wins since Phillip Rivers led the Wolfpack to a Gator Bowl win over Notre Dame in 2002-03. That team beat Texas Tech on the road and handed No. 14 Florida State its only ACC loss of the season.

To get to 10 wins in 2018, NC State will have beaten Marshall on the road, Georgia State and a host of middle-tier ACC schools. Its best win will most likely end up being Boston College, who was playing without star running back A.J. Dillon.

This has been a trend for NC State under Dave Doeren. Here is the list of out-of-conference victories that NC State has collected under Doeren: Louisiana Tech, Richmond, Central Michigan, Georgia Southern, USF (they went 4-8 that year), Presbyterian, Troy, Eastern Kentucky, South Alabama, Old Dominion, William & Mary, Notre Dame (4-8 that year), Marshall, Furman, James Madison, Georgia State.

There were several scares in this time as well. NC State needed a last-second field goal to beat FCS Richmond. Georgia Southern choked away a fourth quarter lead by fumbling on the goal-line, allowing NC State to score a last-minute touchdown to win. Old Dominion lead at halftime and late into the third quarter in its first match-up. The Wolfpack gave up 248 receiving yards to Marshall’s Tye Brady and trailed by 10 at one point.

NC State’s has only lost four out of conference games: East Carolina (x2), South Carolina, and Notre Dame. Or in other words, the only good out-of-conference games they’ve scheduled in the six years under Doeren.

Switching gears to conference play, the numbers still don’t look great for NC State. Even after a 6-2 campaign in 2017, NC State is still ten games under .500 in ACC conference games under Doeren, but it’s probably more appropriate to throw out his first season and say that the Wolfpack has been 17-19 in the ACC since 2013. In that time, NC State has feasted on middling ACC teams, with a combined 13 wins coming against Wake Forest, Syracuse, Boston College and UNC.

Against non-ACC cellar-dwellers, NC State has been bludgeoned. NC State is 2-13 against Clemson, Florida State and Louisville and is 1-4 against legit coastal contenders, with its lone win coming this year against Virginia.

Again, it’s fantastic that NC State is winning the games it’s supposed to, but should fans be troubled at the team’s inability to win against the ACC’s top tier?

NC State has never appeared in the ACC Title Game, and its last ACC title was 1979. Is NC State any closer today than it was before it hired Doeren?

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