Alabama Football heads to Baton Rouge for their biggest test of the season against LSU, hoping to clinch the SEC West.
Alabama has looked unbeatable through the first two months of college football’s regular season, blitzing through opponents at a record pace. At 8-0, with an average margin-of-victory north of 38 points-per-game, the Tide is the unanimous No. 1 team in the AP Poll, and debuted at No. 1 in the first committee rankings on Tuesday.
The last month of the regular season will position Alabama for a run at a place among the all-time greats. Led by Tua Tagovailoa, the Alabama offense has annihilated opponents, demoralizing each and every team they have faced in typically just the first half of games. He has yet to take a snap in the fourth quarter, and has as large of a lead in the Heisman Trophy race as I can remember for a player at the beginning of November.
Armed with an arsenal of weapons at the skill positions, a dominant offensive line, and a still strong defense (if a little down, relative to Alabama standards), the 2018 version of the Crimson Tide has the chance to go down as one of the best college football teams of all time. All that talk will be moot, however, if they can’t invade Death Valley and emerge victorious on Saturday night.
LSU has far exceeded expectations in Ed Orgeron’s second full season roaming the Baton Rouge sidelines. Coming into the season as a fringe Top-25 team, with a loaded schedule, expectations were mild for the Tigers with Coach O beginning the season on everyone’s hot seat watch.
LSU sits at 7-1, and debuted at No. 3 in the committee’s rankings on Tuesday. Orgeron has gone from hot seat watch to coach of the year shortlists, earning the respect of the Baton Rouge faithful. All that goodwill will be for naught if he can’t deliver on his promise of beating Alabama.
Here’s how you can watch Saturday night’s matchup in Death Valley between Alabama and LSU:
Date: Saturday, November 3
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Venue: Tiger Stadium
TV: CBS
Live Stream: CBS Sports Live | FuboTV
Keys to Victory
If Alabama can stop the run, I find it hard to believe that LSU will find much success offensively on Saturday night. LSU’s offense has been middling on standard downs; it has been outright terrible when in obvious passing situations. Alabama will look to force the Tigers into obvious passing situations by keeping them behind the sticks. LSU ranks 120th in the country in passing down success rate, 115th in efficiency, and 122nd in explosiveness, per S&P+. Putting LSU in those situations will also give Alabama a greater shot at creating havoc plays defensively; the Tide ranks 2nd in the country at creating havoc (TFL, sack, forced fumble, pass defended) on 23.5% of opposing snaps.
LSU’s best path to victory will be to create chaos. They’ll need to force turnovers against a team that doesn’t turn the ball over, and they’ll need to be willing to roll the dice at every possible moment. With Tua on the other sideline, this is no longer your traditional field position war-of-attrition between these schools. Coach O will have to be willing to gamble on fourth down, maybe even in his own territory, to put LSU in a position to pull the upset. Orgeron showed a willingness to gamble on fourth down in their win over Georgia, and it paid off with LSU going 4-4 on such opportunities.
Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of oddsshark.com
Point Spread: Alabama -14.5
Over/Under: 54
Prediction
I keep coming back to this being the same LSU team that Alabama has beaten the last seven meetings between the two, but a vastly different Alabama team with a supremely explosive offense. The QB play in this matchup has typically been a wash; this year the scales are heavily tilted in favor of the Crimson Tide. I don’t see Joe Burrow, the SEC’s 13th most efficient passer, being able to do enough through the air to keep up with Tua and company. As good as LSU’s defense is, you can only hold Tua and that offense down for so long before they put some points on the board. I think Tua will take his first snap in the fourth quarter of a game this season, but he’ll lead an early drive in the final frame that puts it to bed.
Final Score: Alabama 38, LSU 17